Read below for our 3 MLB Best Bets Today for Friday, September 11.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:20 PM | |
  | 7:45 PM | |
  | 10:15 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
For more picks and analysis, be sure to download the Action Network app.
Action PRO's Pirates vs Cubs Best Bet
By Action PRO
Action PRO projects Cubs starter Shota Imanaga for 6.94 strikeouts this afternoon against the Pirates, giving us a solid edge on the Over when compared to his current prop line of 6.5.
Imanaga has improved his K/9 rate this season to 8.75 after posting a 7.28 in 2025.
However, if you look at his recent outings, the 10-strikeout game against the White Sox seems like an outlier, so why should we back Imanaga to go over his line today?
Well, it turns out he has a very interesting split.
Imanaga not only has pitched great in day games this season, with a 3.21 ERA, but he also has 63 Ks in 56 frames, compared with 89 Ks in 100 1/3 IP at night and a 4.31 ERA.
It seems like two different pitchers, and we'll go with the one that excels early in the day.
Plus, the Pirates have the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties in the majors, at 26.0%.
At plus money, let's back Imanaga to go over his 6.5 K line against Pittsburgh.
Pick: Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Reds vs Brewers Best Bet
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Under in this game — he projects the total at just 7.24, yet we can get Under 7.5 at plus-money.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new Action PRO betting tool providing our PRO Subscribers with access to all the live data we use to project MLB games each day.
Here's a sneak peek at what BARTOLO can give you:
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Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Padres vs Giants Best Bet
Robbie Ray has one of the fakest ERAs in baseball this season. His 3.39 is backed by a 4.81 xERA, 4.90 xFIP, and 4.98 SIERA. He is a horrible but lucky pitcher. Furthermore, he has been worse since joining the Padres, and his last start was his shortest of the season (2 1/3 IP).
On the opposing mound, Giants starter Anthony Molina is new but impressive since joining the team. He has a 1.88 ERA, backed by a 3.24 xERA, 3.39 xFIP, and 3.36 SIERA in 14 1/3 IP. The sample is small, but Molina has made substantive changes to indicate somewhat sustainable improvement.
Molina will likely not sustain a sub-2.00 ERA, but his increased fastball and flyball rates could help him succeed in San Francisco's pitcher-friendly home park. There are still a lot of unknowns regarding Molina, who was a reliever before joining the Giants, but his success in the minors and youth make him an interesting SP to bet on.
The Padres are much better against RHP (100 wRC+) than the Giants are against LHP (88 wRC+). However, the Giants' offense (105 wRC+) is much better than the Padres' (95 wRC+) in the past two weeks. At plus-money, it is worth taking the Giants against their old teammate Robbie Ray.
Check out all of Kev's MLB best bets today in Friday's edition of The Leadoff:
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Pick: Giants ML (+110 or Better)
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