Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Taillon, Chacin Square Off In Milwaukee
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Well, how about that? There have now been two no-hitters so far in the bigs this season and both were featured in this very column, with each article slobbering plenty over the likes of Sean Manaea and Walker Buehler in the form of unders. We’re not about to get content, however, so let’s just keep it going through Saturday.
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 21-11-2, +8.9 units
Yesterday’s Result: Dodgers-Padres Under 8, Buehler vs. Lucchesi (WIN and NO-HITTER)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.83 ERA) vs. Jhoulys Chacin (2-1, 4.54 ERA)
Surprise, surprise, it’s another over/under containing the underrated talents of Taillon. This is actually my fourth total already this season featuring the former No. 2 overall draft pick, with the first three all being unders and producing a 2-1 record.
That’s exactly what this bet is, too, and Taillon continues to be a big reason for that. Although he’s seen his ERA (4.83) and WHIP (1.23) jump over the past couple of weeks, he’s pretty much certain to bring those back down to much healthier marks, potentially beginning with tonight’s assignment opposite a familiar foe.
Taillon has faced the Brewers six times since first coming up a couple of years ago, churning out an acceptable 3.73 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while recording a 28/5 K/BB ratio in 31.1 innings. Interestingly, those are actually his best stats against a division opponent.
In his last time out, the 26-year-old got back on track with a quality start in Washington — this following two uncharacteristic outings against the Tigers and Phillies, a rough patch that I believe is behind him.
Some of his other peripherals indicate he’s headed in the right direction again, such as the fact that opposing hitters have registered just an 18.5% line-drive rate off the 6-foot-5 right-hander. In turn, they’re also putting the ball on the ground a whopping 58.7% of the time, which points to better days coming up for Taillon. When he’s on his game, he can be as steady as anybody, and that’s what we’re shooting for right here in this particular assignment.
The other end of this bet may be tougher to attain, as we’ll seek some fine pitching from Chacin. At the very least, we should appreciate that the journeyman will be working from Miller Park this evening, something that could extend a trend for the 10-year veteran.
Chacin has typically fared better in his home outings (3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .239 batting average against) compared to in his away starts (4.33 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .280 BAA). Those home-and-road splits have been more extreme during his first season with the Brewers, with him pitching to a 2.31 ERA in his two starts in Milwaukee, easily besting the 5.73 ERA he’s logged elsewhere.
Concerning the over/under line, you’ll definitely want to wait leading up to first pitch to see if the line inflates to 9, which is very possible given that the under’s current juice is +100. Plus, there’s absolutely no way it goes down to 8, so waiting doesn’t really hurt at all. Even if we don’t get the desired uptick, Under 8.5 is still a bet worth riding on this Saturday night.
Play: UNDER 8.5/9