Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, September 10.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Astros/Phillies Under 8.5 (100), 0.5u | Bet through 8.5
- J.deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-109), 0.55u | Bet to -135
- Lean Rockies +300 or better
Rays @ Braves Picks
With just five games on the entire Thursday board, we can say at least a little something about all of them, starting with this early noon affair in Atlanta.
Temperatures are expected in the 80s without wind impact. The park plays neutrally with scheduled umpire Jason Visconti leaning ever so slightly hitter friendly (0.7%) and overall weather impact not expected to be more than 2-3% either way.
Add both of the starting pitchers together and their combined 32.8 K% wouldn’t rank top three among qualified starters.
Yet, despite Nick Martinez having the lower mark (14.8%), he’s been the better pitcher due to a 6.7 point lower walk rate than Martin Perez. Martinez has also elevated his strikeout rate to
With a 4.65 SIERA, 4.21 xERA and 104 Pitching+, I deem Martinez the superior pitcher by around half a run over Martin Perez (4.75 SIERA, 4.73 xERA, 91 Pitching+).
Both pitchers have achieved ERA’s well below their indicators with elevated strand rates, but both have managed contact well with Perez allowing just 5.1% Barrels/BBE and Mariners allowing a 33.2 HardHit%.
With a pair of such contact prone pitchers, defense are going to have to be on their toes and that’s not always the case for these mid-week noon start times.
Projected lineups via BARTOLO has a pair of defenses both within 2 FRV (Fielding Run Value) of zero.
The projected Atlanta offense averages a 120 wRC+ at home, 107 against RHP, but just 87 over the last 30 days. Considering the Braves have been playing both catchers often recently, I didn’t have to worry about sitting Wednesday night’s starter.
The Braves certainly have the offensive edge with the projected Tampa Bay lineup averaging a 104 wRC+ on the road, but just 95 against LHP and 97 over the last 30 days.
Ryan Vilade, Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz all exceed a 125 wRC+ against southpaws without any other projected Ray reaching league average.
Similarly, the top four the projected Atlanta lineup (Harris II, Acuna Jr, Baldwin and Olson) all sit between a 120 and 140 wRC+ against RHP with nobody else reaching 100 through Tuesday (Dubon 99).
Needless to say, expect a pair of top heavy lineups.
Both bullpens have bottom half of the league estimators over the last 30 days with the Braves ranking 18th and Rays 21st, while BARTOLO has each ranked just slightly higher on the season (Rays 15th, Braves 19th).
I’m fairly well aligned with the market on just about every aspect of this game and find no value anywhere.
Pick: PASS
Astros @ Phillies Picks
Temperatures in the mid-80s with a 10 mph wind out towards right-center is the early forecast for Philly. Similar conditions have historically bumped run scoring 2-4% in a park that already plays 4% above average.
However, scheduled umpire Jeremie Rehak brings that back 2.1%, nearly negating the current forecast, which could change.
Cristian Javier completed five innings for the first time in four outings last time out, allowing a single run, while striking out eight Diamondbacks.
He has just one quality start on the season because he’s finished six innings just once.
Javier’s K-BB has been on the rise (25.7% last four starts, 12.6% on the season), but his contact profile has been feast or famine.
Of the 14 barrels he’s allowed so far (9.4%), 11 have come in just five outings, while he’s allowed onely three in all of his others. He’s allowed multiple barrels three times in his last six and none in the other three.
All of that said, his 5.98 ERA is a bit elevated by a .329 BABIP, 69.3 LOB% and having nine of his 14 barrels leave the park. Estimators are closer to five with weighted estimators closer to four and a half, considering much improvement to his peripherals over the last month.
Ironically, RHBs have smoked Javier for a .382 wOBA and .380 xwOBA, while the Phillies are likely to stack the lineup mostly with LHBs and probably one more than usual with Realmuto starting on Wednesday night. LHBs have only two of those nine home runs Javier has surrendered in a similar number of plate appearances (only 17 PA difference).
RHBs also own a .333 wOBA against Javier, but just a .294 xwOBA and would seem where most the discrepancy between his results and indicators lie.
The projected Phillies’ lineup averages a 103 wRC+ at home, but just 93 against RHP. The good news is that they’ve added to the big three (Schwarber 126 wRC+, Harper 172 wRC+ and Marsh 105 wRC+) with Arraez (114 wRC+), but still, no other projected Phillie exceeds a 95 wRC+ against RHP this year.
These projected nine also only average a 96 wRC+ over the last month.
The Houston defense projects for 0 FRV, perfectly average.
More irony, these bullpens virtually tie for 7th best estimators over the last 30 days, averaging a FIP, xFIP and SIERA within 0.01 runs of each other at three and two-thirds runs per nine.
BARTOLO ranks both bullpens top 10 as well, but gives the home team a one-fifth or a run edge.
Zack Wheeler has recovered from a concerning stretch where he allowed 19 runs (18 earned) in just 19.1 innings with a 7.3 K-BB% to strike out 15 of his last 48 batters, while walking five and allowing just two runs over his last 12 innings, while elevating his velocity nearly half a mph too.
Yes, he still has a 13.9 BB% over his last six starts though.
The biggest thing to mention against the Astros is that Wheeler has held RHBs to a .245 wOBA and .228 xwOBA this year.
Important with the Astros only expected to start three LHBs, although they could also counter with LaMonte Wade Jr., who isn’t scaring anybody.
I’m also projecting Yainer Diaz (110 wRC+ vs RHP, 142 wRC+ last 30 days) to sit after starting Wednesday night, bringing the projected Houston lineup to an average 103 wRC+ on the road, 108 at home, but just 78 over the last month.
Yordan Alvarez (124 wRC+) and Isaac Paredes (151 wRC+) are the only projected Astros above a 94 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
A projected defense at -12 FRV is actually not that bad for the Phillies and we’ve already discussed the bullpen, though we won’t know if anyone is unavailable until after this is published.
With Javier being a late confirmation, we’re still missing a few markets in this game, but I have found one I like.
While there are concerns for both pitchers in Javier’s volatility and Wheeler’s sudden walk issues, both should be in favorable matchups, facing the majority of batters from a side of the plate they’ve done better against.
Add in a pair of quality defenses and I’m a bit below the market total of 8.5 on this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (100), 0.5u | Bet through 8
Rangers @ Mariners Picks
The most negative run environment in baseball (-15% on average) is not only forecast for weather that runs 0-4% below average, but scheduled plate umpire Rob Drake also suppresses run scoring by 3%.
Oh, and we also have a pair of great pitchers on the mound, though both would probably call their 2026 season a disappointment.
Jacob deGrom allowed eight runs in Chicago (AL) three starts back, but has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts and 19 of 27 starts this year. However, a few random blowups have his ERA sitting at 3.96, the worst of his career by nearly half a run and only his second time above 3.1.
The great news is that a 3.64 FIP is his only estimator above 3.25 and is exactly 0.6 runs above his xERA, suggesting 19 home runs on 31 barrels is a bit of misfortune.
Josh Naylor is the low man (95 wRC+) in the projected Seattle lineup against RHP with Lazaro Montes’s unsustainable 215 mark despite striking out seven times in 14 PAs against RHP elevating the lineup average to 126. BARTOLO more credibly averages the lineup out to a 108 WRC+ projection.
Their 108 wRC+ average at home and even 114 over the last 30 days are less effected by Montes, though Cal Raleigh is trying to make up for his unfortunate 2026 season in a single month (201 wRC+).
The Rangers own one of the more remarkably undervalued defenses in the league with Thursday’s unit projected at 24 FRV without having to bench either catcher, as these teams also played a day game on Wednesday, which is unusual.
A Texas bullpen that is ranked 17th by BARTOLO has only the 23rd best estimators over the last 30 days with a 4.74 FIP, 4.31 xFIP and 3.99 SIERA.
Logan Gilbert’s 20.3 K-BB% is his lowest mark in three years, despite being a on the wish list of most pitchers in this league.
He’s always been a bit home run prone and while you might consider 26 home runs on 45 barrels a bit unlucky, his 3.71 ERA, 3.86 FIP and 3.73 xERA are all well aligned with additional contact neutral estimators closer to three and a half.
The Texas projected lineup averages a 114 wRC+ on the road with only Ezequiel Duran (88 wRC+), perhaps the most pleasantly surprising Ranger overall this season, and Evan Carter (71) below average on the road. However, the lineup also averages just a 95 wRC+ against RHP, as the bottom two spots in the order have put up almost no production. The projected lineup averages a perfect 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The Seattle defense has been as bad as Texas has been good, projecting for -21 FRV on Thursday.
BARTOLO rates the Mariners the 7th best bullpen in the league, while they are barely ahead of the Rangers for the 22nd best estimators over the last month, but it comes with a caveat.
The Seattle bullpen has a 4.02 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA over the last 30 days (through Tuesday), but league worst 7.62 ERA and 5.25 FIP. The obvious culprit has been 1.9 HR/9.
We’re going to veer back towards deGrom for my preferred play in this game. He’s struck out batters from the left-hand side (29.9%) and right-hand side (29.8%) at nearly perfectly even rates, which means that 15 of the 21 I project him to face will likely come from the left-hand side without any Seattle surprises.
That may be a bit conservative, but deGrom has faced a high of 22 batters just once in his last six starts and actually helps me prove my point.
While the Mariners have improved on contact numbers over the last year or so, it’s still a lineup that averages a 24.2 K% vs RHP this season through the first 21 projected batters.
As much as Rob Drake boosts run scoring, he’s essentially neutral for strikeouts, but the early weather and park forecast is a 20% bump to strikeouts.
The 6.5 number on deGrom seems a bit low and currently available on Novig at 52% (approx. -109) as of this writing.
Pick: J.deGrom Over 6.5 (-109), 0.55u | Bet to -135
Rockies @ Yankees Picks
Yankee Stadium plays 2% above average as a run environment with weather currently expected to add another 3-5% and scheduled plate umpire Ryan Additon add it on another 1.4%.
Ryan Feltner has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four outings and the only one he didn’t was a four inning follower proposition.
He’s down to a 6.9 K-BB% with 10% Barrels/BBE and although a 5.91 ERA is above all indicators, his best mark is still just a 4.85 Bot ERA (92 Pitching+).
I see him as a legitimate five runs per nine kind of guy right now.
Batters from either side of the plate have belted Feltner for a wOBA and xwOBA above .330, but just when the Yankee lineup gets healthier with Aaron Judge’s return (though he may not be entirely healthy), they then lose Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham.
BARTOLO’s projected lineup for Thursday averages a plentiful 119 wRC+ at home, 108 wRC+ and .192 ISO against RHP, but just a 92 wRC+ over the last month, which includes five batters below 85.
The projected Colorado defense is fine (4 FRV). The bullpen has the fourth worst estimators over the last month and is BARTOLO’s worst unit on the season.
Here’s an odd Max Fred stat. He’s had two IL stints this year with the first one longer than the second one (just two weeks). Since retuning from the first, longer stint, just a bit after the AS break, he’s struck out exactly four or seven in each of his seven starts, including four in each of his last three.
He’s allowed more than one run in just one of those starts, but has just one quality start, as the Yankees have had to be conservative with him.
He hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches since May 8th and is sitting at a career low 47.3 GB%, his first time below 50%, with a 15.8 K-BB% that’s his second lowest mark since 2021. Yet, he’s allowed just four barrels (1.6%) with a 29.6 HardHit%.
Fried’s contact neutral estimators (3.85 SIERA, 3.63 xFIP) are wildly different than his contact inclusive ones (2.65 FIP, 2.54 xERA).
I tenatively have him around three and a half this year.
The projected Colorado lineup has been competent, averaging a 98 wRC+ on the road and 106 wRC+ against LHP, but just an 84 wRC+ over the last 30 days. TJ Rumfield (153), Connor Norby (104) and Adael Amador (182) are the only projected Rockies above an 82 wRC+ for the last month.
The Yankee defense should be fine (10 FRV). They have the 5th best bullpen estimators over the last 30 days, though BARTOLO ranks them just 21st on the season.
What can you really do here? The Yankees are massive favorites and Fried will probably strike out four to seven batters in fewer than six innings of work, but those aren’t really trends we can be confident in.
Maybe throw a quarter unit at the Rockies if the line gets too out of hand?
Pick: Lean Rockies +300 or better
Pirates @ White Sox Picks
Rate Field (is that really what its called now?) suppresses run scoring by 2% with the early forecast suggesting anywhere from another 3% suppression to a 0.5% weather boost and Alex MacKay, our scheduled plate umpire perfectly neutral.
Jared Jones is coming off his best start of the season, as he progresses back from Tommy John surgery, striking out nine of 21 Angels over six shutout innings. It was just his fourth quality start of the season.
Inconsistently in just about every area, has been a theme to his season. Even his velocity has had runs of ups and downs, though a 32.6 K% over his last four starts and 30% mark over his last 11 have him up to 27.6% on the season. He’s also had a sub-5.5 BB% in six of his last 10 starts even if his season mark still sits at 8.4%.
The contact profile has been perfectly average, but his 4.46 ERA is about a run above most estimators with his 71.8 LOB% a bit low and 12 of his 17 barrels leaving the park.
The offense has carried this White Sox team late in the season as the pitching has begun failing. Thursday’s projected lineup averages a 104 wRC+ at home, but 114 mark against RHP and 117 over the last 30 days.
Colton Montgomery (86) and Chase Meidroth (92) have been the only below average Sox in this lineup against RHP this season.
The projected defense behind Jones has run a -13 FRV with Nick Gonzales (-10) responsible for most of that and Brandon Lowe (11) responsible for anything that’s good with only one other projected Pirate reaching positive territory and you won’t believe it’s Oneil Cruz (2).
The Pittsburgh bullpen has put up the 10th best peripherals over the last month (3.09 FIP, 4.17 xFIP, 3.95 SIERA) with BARTOLO ranking them the 8th best unit in the league.
The White Sox have yet to officially confirm a pitcher and with Rotowire listing Luis Castillo, you certainly understand why.
The Mariners haven’t done much right this season, but absolutely fleeced the White Sox into simply taking Castillo off their hands. Aside from striking out 10 Reds, he’s struck out only 13 of his other 101 batters faced since the trade and has allowed 23 runs (22 earned) in 19.1 innings against teams not named the Reds. LHBs are up to a .377 wOBA and .355 xwOBA against him this season.
The Pirates project to send out a lineup that averages a 122 wRC+ on the road and 112 wRC+ against RHP, but just an 83 wRC+ over the last 30 days if it’s Castillo or any other right-handed starter.
The White Sox should boast an above average defense (11 FRV) and middle of the board bullpen estimators over the last month (3.79 FIP, 4.71 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA). BARTOLO ranks this bullpen 11th best.
Markets are currently floating a pick’em price and 7.5 total for this game even without a pitching confirmation from the White Sox. The former number is exactly where I had it projected anyway, although I might have a lean towards the over in some manner (game, team, F5) if Castillo is confirmed.
Pick: PASS (for now)
- Astros/Phillies Under 8.5 (100), 0.5u | Bet through 8.5
- J.deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-109), 0.55u | Bet to -135
- Lean Rockies +300 or better
