Athletics vs Angels Pick Thursday | MLB Odds, Prediction Today
Via Meg Oliphant/Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels rounds the bases on a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 26, 2023 in Anaheim, California.
- The Angels are home favorites with Shohei Ohtani on the mound against the Oakland Athletics on Thursday afternoon.
- The A's have struggled mightily to start the season, but is there any value in backing them against the Angels in this spot?
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Athletics vs. Angels Odds
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+245 | 8.5 -108 / -112 | +1.5 +114 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-300 | 8.5 -108 / -112 | -1.5 -137 |
Shohei Ohtani will look to continue a potentially magical season Thursday with another strong start against the lowly Athletics. Ohtani is now priced as the favorite to win the AL Cy Young at +450 and is a massive favorite to win the AL MVP at +110.
J.P. Sears was the key pickup for Oakland in the Frankie Montas deal with New York last August and was still considered a top prospect at the time. Sears has struggled to a 4.99 ERA over 21 1/3 innings.
Is Ohtani overvalued in this spot, or will the A's continue to struggle in this third game of a four-game series? Find a betting pick and prediction below for Athletics vs. Angels.
Oakland Athletics
It is extremely tough to find much to be excited about for Athletics fans, who have endured a 5-20 start with an absurd -104 Run Differential 25 games into the season. Losing by an average of 4.16 runs per game is truly something special and a downright difficult task given the randomness of baseball.
Sears was once viewed as a potential source of excitement for Athletics fans entering what was always going to be another painful season, however that is yet to be the case.
Sears has pitched to an xERA of 5.14 and has allowed a .524 xSLG rate over a reasonable sample size of 21 1/3 innings. He has also struggled worse away from the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum, as he owns an ERA of 5.73 on the road.
Sears struck out 11 last time out versus Texas in what was a far more positive start despite being allowing four earned runs in the first inning, including another home run by Jonah Heim. There should be some positive regression looming for Sears's 17.1% HR/FB as this is simply unsustainable for hitters to remain this hot against him.
Batters have absolutely crushed both Sears's fastball and changeup so far, with xSLG rates of .603 on the fastball and .734 on the changeup.
Behind Sears lies what has been a historically awful bullpen, which has pitched to a 6.84 ERA altogether this season.
Offensively the Athletics have been significantly less pathetic. They have hit to a wRC+ of 86 versus right handed pitching, which actually ranks above eight other teams.
Los Angeles Angels
Ohtani has arguably taken his pitching to another level to start the 2022 campaign, and he should make life very tough on the Athletics' strikeout-prone lineup on Thursday.
Ohtani has pitched to an xERA of 2.29, compared to his 2.68 mark a season ago. He has allowed significantly less hard contact so far and is being hard-hit just 28.6% of the time over 28 innings while striking out 36.2% of batters faced.
It is worth noting that Ohtani has pitched against an easier than average slate of offensive sides, with starts coming versus the Nationals, Royals, and Athletics.
The Angels have really beat up on the Athletics' dreadful pitching so far this season by scoring 35 runs in five matchups, with the Angels winning three out of five times.
The Angels have taken significant steps forward offensively this season compared to their thoroughly disappointing 2022 campaign. Having Mike Trout healthy has been a key factor, but the addition of Hunter Renfroe is also working out tremendously.
The loss of catcher Logan O'Hoppe does hurt the Angels' upside, however, and he will be out for 4-6 months.
Los Angeles has hit to an 11th-best wRC+ of 116. It has also hit to a .416 xSLG rate and has improved to a middle of the pack BB/K rate of 0.41.
Athletics vs. Angels Betting Pick
Ohtani has been stellar on the mound yet again this season, and I do not believe we need to look away from the obvious take that he should dominate a horrific Athletics lineup Thursday.
Sears continues to disappoint what were once fairly lofty expectations. He is not offering a strong argument as to why a meaningful turnaround is on the horizon, and I like the chances that the Angels' red hot lineup does significant damage Thursday.
Closing out games has remained a struggle this season for the Angels. At some point you would think that flaw balances out, but even still, the final two innings are not something I want a part of if I am backing L.A.
The Angels are -130 to cover -1.5 in the first seven innings of this game, which is my favorite way to target them in this matchup. Betting the Los Angeles team total to go over 4.5 is the next-best option.
Pick: Angels 7 Inning Run Line -1.5 (-130 | bet365)
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