Athletics vs. Phillies Odds, Pick & Preview: Philadelphia’s Hot Bats Go for the Sweep (April 10)
Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber.
- The Phillies go for a sweep of the A's today as a big favorite.
- Philadelphia's bats have been red hot to start the season, and it has Zach Eflin on the mound here.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Athletics vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||9 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Phillies will look to cap off a very promising opening weekend with a win to sweep the Athletics on Sunday afternoon.
Kyle Gibson tossed seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 on Saturday to get the win over Cole Irvin. Zach Eflin will get the ball for the Phillies on Sunday, and he’ll look to make it three straight quality starts to start the season for Philadelphia.
Phillies Offense Led By New Signings
As most expected entering this season, the Phillies offense has looked very strong through two games, scoring 14 runs with a .415 wOBA and 173 wRC+. Big-name free-agent signings Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber have immediately paid dividends, combining for two home runs and five RBIs. I think they can cause problems again here in a matchup against A’s starter Daulton Jefferies.
It’ll be important to monitor the Phillies lineup tomorrow, just to make sure both Castellanos and Schwarber are starting in the midst of such a busy schedule to start the season.
Zach Eflin is on the mound for the Phillies, and he has some quiet upside entering this season. The right-hander pitched to a modest 4.17 ERA and 3.60 xERA in 105 2/3 innings last season.
Eflin had an elite 3.6 BB% rate last season, but he struggled in part due to a 14.2% home run-to-fly ball ratio. This could be a good spot to keep the ball in the park, however, in what should be far from summer, hitter-friendly conditions at Citizens Bank Park, and against a lineup with very little pop.
In Eflin’s last spring-training start on April 5, he featured a 5.47 QOPA over 64 pitches. That’s encouraging for veteran whose stuff is far from a top strength and coming off of surgery.
There’s little history to go off in this interleague matchup, as the A’s projected lineup have a combined four at-bats against Eflin.
Oakland Lineup Struggling Already
Oakland has looked lethargic at the plate to start 2022, as we expected from a team that ZiPS projects to hit the fewest runs in MLB by 0.25 per game.
The Athletics struck out 23 times in the first two games of this series, and they have a porous .255 wOBA and 63 wRC+ so far. It’s again a very small sample size, but it’s obviously concerning with what little we already expected from this roster.
Jefferies will take the mound, figuring to be a slightly above-average starting option this season for Oakland. ZiPS projects the 26-year-old for a 4.42 ERA this year, which would be a drop from his 3.95 xERA in 2021.
Philadelphia’s lineup looks scary good. It seems like most Phillies losses this season will be because of subpar pitching and defense. Considering my expectation for slight progression this season from Eflin, I don’t expect one of those defeats to come on Sunday against this lowly Athletics lineup.
It’s easy to argue that Philadelphia holds a breakeven pitching matchup here, and that makes me believe they start the season with a sweep. I project the Phillies to win this contest by two runs or more often enough that they have value at -110 to cover a run line.
Taking the Phillies to win the first five innings is certainly an option, but I actually still see the most edge playing the full game run line. Even though the Phillies ‘pen is going to be quite average, the expected production from this Athletics lineup makes me feel comfortable just running this matchup over nine innings.
To me, -110 in this spot seems like an early season line that we just want to take advantage of. In two months, this pitching matchup between these two teams might easily have the run line sitting at -130. Single-game parlays involving Eflin to book the win will be another set of lines I watch in the morning.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -110 (Play to -120)
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