Rockies-Dodgers Preview: Great Pitching Matchup Provides Over/Under Value

Rockies-Dodgers Preview: Great Pitching Matchup Provides Over/Under Value article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw

Betting odds: Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Rockies moneyline: +170
  • Dodgers moneyline: -200
  • Over/Under: 7 (+100/-120)
  • First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • Channel: MLB Network

>> All odds as of 10 p.m. ET on Monday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets


Not only is Tuesday night’s game between the Rockies and Dodgers gigantic, but we’ve also got ourselves an awesome pitching matchup at Chavez Ravine as Kyle Freeland takes on Clayton Kershaw in an all-southpaw battle.

Kershaw has been fantastic since his return from the disabled list, logging a 2.39 ERA and .249 on-base percentage against in 95.1 innings pitched. Over that span he’s notched 89 strikeouts compared to just 12 walks. The Dodgers are 11-4 in the 15 games Kershaw has started since he came back from the DL.

Kershaw faced the Rockies 11 days ago, holding them to two runs on six hits while striking out seven in six innings. That start was at Coors Field.

Freeland has also been money lately. His 15 wins leads the team, and over his last eight starts the former first-round pick owns a 2.31 ERA and has limited opponents to a .279 OBP. The Rockies have won eight in a row with Freeland on the mound.

In his last start against the Dodgers — which took place on Sept. 8, the Colorado native allowed one run on four hits and struck out eight in six innings.

All of this is pointing in one direction, but I think that a pitching matchup that looks this good on paper actually provides some value on the over. Let’s dig a little more deeply.

Kershaw is fantastic, but the Rockies have the second-best wOBA (weighted on-base average) and OPS against lefties this season.

The Dodgers aren’t as dominant against southpaws, but they still sport a top-10 wRC+ (weighted runs created-plus, a catch-all offensive stat) against lefties.

And as good as Freeland has been, his numbers are ripe for regression. The 25-year-old has stranded 82.4% of baserunners this year, which is very high especially for someone who doesn’t have great strikeout numbers. He also has a .277 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which suggests he’s been lucky.

Even though both of these hurlers shut down their opponent tonight just a few days ago, the odds shift toward the hitter when facing a pitcher in a short time span.

Most of the betting public will see this pitching matchup and lean toward the under, but I’m going the other way.

Bet: Over 7 (+100)