The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on August 19, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Phillies are favored by -123 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
- Marlins vs Phillies Pick: Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (+101)
My Marlins vs Phillies best bet is on Griffin Conine to record at least two hits, runs or runs batted in today. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Phillies Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 9 -106o / -114u | +114 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +159 | 9 -106o / -114u | -123 |
- Marlins vs Phillies moneyline: Marlins +114, Phillies -123
- Marlins vs Phillies over/under: 9 (-106o / -114u)
- Marlins vs Phillies spread: Marlins +1.5 (-194), Phillies -1.5 (+159)
Marlins vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) | Stat | Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-7 | W-L | 4-9 |
| 3.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.43 / 3.62 | ERA / xERA | 5.33 / 4.24 |
| 3.79 / 4.15 | FIP / xFIP | 5.04 / 3.86 |
| 12.0 | K-BB% | 16.2 |
| 43.4 | GB% | 39.9 |
| .271 | BABIP | .321 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 103 | Location+ | 103 |
Marlins vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Marlins are currently a game above .500 and four out of the final NL Wildcard spot. They will be happy to know this is the final stop of their road trip, as they are 38-25 at home and 26-38 on the road. Despite the drastic difference in record, their offensive production has been similar home and away.
The Marlins average 4.4 runs per game both at home and on the road, with their team OPS (.735) being a tick higher at home. You would think getting four runs in a game started by Zack Wheeler would be enough. However, the fifth inning doomed the Marlins as the Phillies scored four en route to a 6-4 victory.
The Marlins have a 4.54 team ERA on the road compared to 3.39 at home, a major factor in their struggles as visitors. Their best chances of late have come with Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez on the mound.
Alcantara will get the ball tonight and will look to continue his dominant stretch. He has pitched seven innings in four of his last five starts while allowing just one earned run in his last four outings. That includes seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts against the Phillies a few weeks ago.
When healthy, Alcantara is among the game's top workhorses, reaching 170 innings for the fifth consecutive season. The Phillies have seen him as much as anyone. He has made 24 starts against them, going 8-11 with a 3.66 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 147 and 2/3 innings.
One hitter who may give him some run support is Griffin Conine. The son of longtime MLB veteran Jeff Conine has started to make a name for himself with a breakout season. In just 169 at-bats, the 28-year-old has 14 home runs, leading to a .933 OPS.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
With last night's victory, the Phillies took the regular-season series with their seventh victory over the Marlins.
They will go for the sweep tonight, a much different tune from the last time these teams got together. In the final week of July, the Marlins swept the Phillies in Miami as they snapped their 12-game losing streak, prompting Bryce Harper to ask for help at the deadline.
Though Phillies fans were expecting a more powerful bat, the help did arrive in the form of former Marlin and three-time batting champion Luis Arraez. In 14 games with the Phillies, Arraez is hitting .274 with a home run and nine runs batted in. He is coming off a three-hit night and will look to extend his hitting streak to seven games.
Harper has also backed up his words with his performance. In August, he is slashing .309/.519/.527 with three home runs and seven runs batted in. He is five home runs away from his fifth career 30-home run season, and he has three off Alcantara along with a .327 batting average in 49 at-bats.
He could soon join teammate Kyle Schwarber in the 30-homer club. Schwarber leads the MLB with 37 on the year, but he has not taken Alcantara deep in 42 at-bats and has just one against the Marlins this season.
The Phillies are a game ahead of the Padres for the second NL Wild Card, though the NL East is not out of reach yet. They are 5.5 games behind the Braves, but they have made up four games in the last week.
Philly is at its best when Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzardo start, as the trio ranks No. 2, 3, and 4 in the NL in strikeouts since April 25th.
Aaron Nola used to be a part of that group, but he is 9-19 with a 5.62 ERA since the start of last season. Citizens Bank Park hasn't felt like home for him this year. He is 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA and is allowing a .308 opposing batting average.
Marlins vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
In his last three starts, Conine has recorded two hits, runs, and runs batted in, including in games started by Wheeler and Sanchez. Tonight, he gets his most favorable matchup of the series against Nola.
Of the 30 home runs Nola has allowed this season, 25 have been in night games, and 18 have been to left-handed hitters, who also have a .860 OPS against him.
All 14 of Conine's home runs have been against right-handed pitchers, including last night against Wheeler. He is already 2-for-5 against Nola and lines up well against his arsenal.
In his last seven games against Nola's pitch mix, Conine is slugging 1.143 with a 50% flyball rate. He does not have enough at-bats to qualify, but he would be among the StatCast leaders in barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity.
Though Conine could clear this line with two singles, he could be on track for his second consecutive game with a home run.
He is +360 on FanDuel and +188 for an extra-base hit on DraftKings.
Pick: Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (+101, DraftKings)
