Blue Jays vs. Mariners MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: The Over/Under Bet to Make in Seattle (Friday, July 8)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Rodriguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-110|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Toronto’s pitching staff put forth what was yet another lowly performance in Thursday’s series opener, as the suddenly hot Mariners put up an 8-spot on route to a comfortable win.
The Blue Jays will turn to Ross Stripling Friday, who has been surprisingly effective throughout 62.1 innings this season pitching to an ERA of 3.32.
The Mariners will counter with George Kirby, who has been steady on route to a 3.75 ERA in his rookie campaign. Will Toronto’s potent offense wake up Friday against Kirby and the Mariners?
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has struggled in every faucet of the game over the last handful of contests, but the circumstances leading to this lull do seem quite valid, and I believe the Jays will at least wake up offensively in the coming handful of games.
On Saturday afternoon Blue Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski’s 17-year old daughter passed away tragically in a boating accident and — as you would expect — the loss seemed to really shake up the team and those within the organization.
Toronto also played four games in three days last weekend, before heading down to Oakland Monday, which was only the third time a team had faced such a schedule before a three time-zone change this season.
So while Toronto has had a lesser week offensively, I still believe it’s obvious to say that the Jays are better than we have seen in that regard.
Since May 15 Toronto holds the second-best wRC+ in baseball at 126, and to looks towards a more recent sample, holds the league’s third-best mark over the past 30 days at 123 with a .346 WOBA.
Toronto has been the league’s sixth-most potent offense against right-handed pitching this season with a 112 wRC+ over 2546 AB’s altogether, and were the league’s second-best offense against righties last season.
The Jays were the best team in the league against the fastball in 2021, and have remained very solid in that regard this season with a +18.7 pitch value, which is a favorable note entering a matchup with George Kirby who has thrown the fastball 52% of the time.
The greatest concern for Toronto has been the struggles from the pitching staff, with both the starters and bullpen in dreadful form of late.
Ross Stripling has been surprisingly solid pitching to a 3.32 ERA, but his xERA of 3.95 suggests regression is coming.
Stripling has also rarely been counted on to pitch deep into games and has struggled in those spots, pitching to an ERA of 5.04 from innings 4-7, and Toronto will likely be looking to get six or more innings from Stripling tonight.
Over the past 30 days, Toronto’s bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 4.96, and it has been widely covered how bad the situation has gotten, especially as many of the supposed top arms have fallen into poor form of late.
Seattle’s recent surge in the standings, led by some excellent play at the plate, has it sitting just three games back of Toronto for the second Wild Card spot in the American League.
Over their last six series, the Mariners hit to a fifth-best wRC+ of 124 with a .335 WOBA and, led by rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez, have quietly became a potent offensive unit.
Led by an elite walk-rate of just 3.2% George Kirby has began to show why he entered the league highly touted, but still features an xERA of 3.87 and has allowed a lot of hard contact so far this season.
Toronto should make for a very tough matchup for Kirby as well, being a fastball heavy righty, and I believe we should see Toronto manage some strong contact Friday.
Blue Jays-Mariners Pick
Toronto’s pitching staff is in complete shambles, and if we do not see Stripling manage a strong performance things could get a little out of hand yet again, and on top of that Stripling has struggled far worse third time through the order this season.
With that concern in mind, I can certainly see the Mariners suddenly hot offense managing another reasonable performance against Stripling and the Blue Jays bullpen.
That said, as explained I do still firmly believe the Blue Jays are holding one of the top offenses in baseball, and the last week of struggles has come with some very reasonable excuses.
The juice being listed at -105 for this game to get over a total of 8.5 seems very reasonable, and I do believe we will see the Blue Jays bounce-back offensively moving forward and that will start tonight.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105, play to -115)