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MLB Odds & Picks for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Betting Guide to AL East Duel from Fenway

MLB Odds & Picks for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Betting Guide to AL East Duel from Fenway article feature image
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Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: Alek Manoah (Blue Jays)

  • After getting beat 28-5 on Friday, the Red Sox are back in action at Fenway Park against the Jays in an AL East clash.
  • Things don't get any easier for the Sox, as Alek Manoah is taking the hill for the Jays.
  • Alex Hinton previews the matchup and dives into more reasons as to why he's taking the road team.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds

Blue Jays Odds -145
Red Sox Odds +125
Over/Under 9.5
Time 4:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, it’s been a turbulent month of July. The Jays began the month by losing nine of their first 11 games, which led to the ousting of manager Charlie Montoyo.

Under interim manager John Schneider, the Jays ripped off five wins in six games to close out the first half on a high note.

Toronto then opened the second half in grand style, with a 28-5 thumping of the Boston Red Sox.

On the other side, the Red Sox have been in free fall of late. Since moving a season-high 11 games over .500 on June 26, the Red Sox have gone just 6-15 since. That stretch began by losing two of three in Toronto.

This has been a theme for Boston all season, as its just 12-28 against AL East rivals.

It won’t get much easier for the Red Sox with Alek Manoah going for the Blue Jays today.

Can Boston put an end to its skid, or will the Blue Jays continue to roll?

Manoah + Dangerous Offense in Store for Jays

Manoah will get the start for the Blue Jays in game two of this series.

Manoah is enjoying a breakout season in his second campaign. The 24-year old is 10-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 114 innings. He’s also tied for second in the league in quality starts.

Some might say Manoah is due for some regression in the second half because his xERA is 3.01. However, Manoah still holds a strong advanced metrics profile overall.

He has a .219 xBA, ,329 xSLG. and .258 xOBA. He also ranks in the 97th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage and 87th percentile in Average Exit Velocity.

Manoah will be making his third start against the Red Sox this season, and he’s had their number so far. He’s 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings against Boston this season. Both of those starts were in Toronto, however, Manoah still has a 2.47 ERA in nine starts this season.

He’ll be backed by one of the most potent offenses in the game. The Blue Jays lead in team batting average, hitting 266. as a club. They also rank third in runs scored and OPS.

Last night, the Blue Jays set a franchise record for runs scored, and they just fell short of the modern league record by two. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. tied the franchise record with six hits and every starter had at least two hits on the night.

The Blue Jays didn’t even have center fielder George Springer, but he may return to the lineup today.


Red Sox’s Stars Don’t Have Success vs. Manoah

Boston was embarrassed last night, and it will turn to Kutter Crawford to right the ship.

For Crawford, it will be his fifth start of the season, and he’s 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA. However, he has 3.86 xERA and .226 xBA. Crawford has strikeout stuff, featuring a mid 90s fastball and cutter he uses 30% of the time. He has 44 strikeouts in 36 innings and has a 28.2% strikeout percentage.

Crawford can be prone to the long ball, and has already given up five home runs this season. Against Toronto, that can be problematic, as it ranks fifth in home runs and hit four last night.

If Toronto hits Crawford around, Boston will need its offense to step up to pull out the win.

Boston ranks fourth in the majors in team batting average at .256 and eighth in runs scored and OPS.

When the Sox are rolling offensively, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are usually right in the middle of things. The trio is all hitting above .300 on the year. However against Manoah, they’re a combined 2-of-24.

Martinez was a late scratch last night with back spasms, and he’s questionable for today’s game.

Blue Jays-Red Sox Pick

Toronto won’t score 28 runs today. However, with Manoah on the mound, it won’t need that many.

Crawford has been solid for the Red Sox, allowing one run or fewer in three of his five starts. However, he has yet to surpass six innings or 91 pitches this season.

If the Blue Jays get to Crawford early, they’ll be able to take advantage of a Red Sox bullpen that’s still licking its wounds from last night.

Toronto is 7-3 against the Red Sox this season, and behind Manoah and a hot offense, I expect the Blue Jays to pick up another win in this series.

I will be backing the Blue Jays on the moneyline.

Pick: Blue Jays ML -140

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