The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 16, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Brewers are favored by -125 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction
- Brewers vs Pirates Pick: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Hits
My Brewers vs Pirates best bet is for Jackson Chourio to hit two or more hits. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page. Make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analaysis!
Brewers vs Pirates Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -112o / -107u | -125 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -163 | 7.5 -112o / -107u | +104 |
- Brewers vs Pirates moneyline: Brewers -125, Pirates +104
- Brewers vs Pirates over/under: 7.5 (-112o / -107u)
- Brewers vs Pirates spread: Brewers -1.5 (+135), Pirates +1.5 (-163)
Brewers vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Logan Henderson (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Jared Jones (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-3 | W-L | 4-6 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 2.34 / 2.61 | ERA / xERA | 4.10 / 3.45 |
| 3.17 / 3.23 | FIP / xFIP | 3.71 / 3.69 |
| 25.6% | K-BB% | 19.6% |
| 29.5% | GB% | 36.7% |
| .209 | BABIP | .272 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 108 | Location+ | 105 |
Brewers vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Jackson Chourio continues to establish himself as one of the premier young hitters in Major League Baseball. Although he enters Wednesday on an 0-for-9 skid, that minor dip comes immediately on the heels of a scorching stretch where he went 13-for-23 (.565 average) at the plate.
More importantly, Chourio presents a massive structural nightmare for Pirates' hurler Jared Jones' primary offering:
- Fastball Production: Chourio is batting .314 with 14 home runs and 19 doubles across 271 at-bats against four-seam fastballs this season.
- Head-to-Head Success: In five career at-bats against Jones, Chourio has collected three hits (.600 average), including a home run.
- Recent Matchup: When these two met last month, Chourio tagged Jones for two hits, including a long ball.
Chourio's ability to crush four-seamers gives him a high-floor opportunity to collect hits, making any brief hitless streak short-lived when facing a fastball-reliant arm.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
On the surface, Jared Jones has put together an exceptional stretch on the mound. Across his last 13 innings of work, the Pirates righty has allowed just four total hits and zero earned runs—highlighted by a seven-inning, one-hit dominant performance against the White Sox last week.
However, a look under the hood reveals pitch-usage tendencies that play directly into Milwaukee's hands:
- Pitch Usage Gap: Jones throws his four-seam fastball 46.2% of the time, an 11% higher usage rate than his elite slider, despite holding much stronger run value metrics on his breaking stuff.
- Whiff vs. Run Value: While Jones boasts a 94th-percentile Whiff%, his four-seamer and offspeed pitches hold subpar Run Value metrics, leaving him vulnerable when hitters lay off his slider.
- Brewers Familiarity: Milwaukee rocked Jones in their last meeting a month ago, shelling him for eight hits and three earned runs over just four innings of play.
Brewers vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
Jones has been sharp overall, but his high fastball rate plays directly into Chourio’s sweet spot.
With Chourio holding a proven head-to-head track record against Jones and swinging one of the most explosive bats in the league, expect the Brewers star to bounce back from his short slump and clear his hit total cleanly.
Action Network's PRO Projections identify substantial market value on taking the over on Chourio’s multi-hit prop at plus-money odds.
By weighing Jones' tendency to throw fastballs in high-volume counts against Chourio's track record of punishing four-seamers, the projection model finds a clear disconnect between Chourio's implied odds and his true multi-hit potential.
Back the model edge and take Chourio to record at least two hits.
Pick: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Hits (+195, DraftKings)
