Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Wednesday, September 16.
MLB Player Props Today
Orioles vs Mets Player Prop
The price we’re getting on Juan Soto is simply too good to pass up.
The lefty slugger ranks in the 100th percentile among qualified hitters in xSLG (.573) and still possesses elite power (13.8% barrel rate). He has also posted a career-best 13.9% strikeout rate this season.
While he won’t reach 40 home runs for the third straight year due to injury, Soto is always a threat to leave the yard.
Against Chris Bassitt tonight, the matchup favors the left-handed slugger.
Bassitt has struggled mightily in his first season with Baltimore, posting a career-worst 16% strikeout rate and a 5.10 xERA. At 37 years old, he’s increasingly reliant on generating soft contact to get outs.
Right-handed hitters have had limited success against Bassitt this season, but it’s a different story against lefties. He has allowed a near-7% barrel rate to left-handed hitters, who are batting .321 with an .888 OPS against him. Bassitt has also allowed 1.39 HR/9 in his weaker split.
Bassitt’s three primary pitches against lefties are his sinker, curveball, and cutter, which he throws 78% of the time combined. Soto has a +4 run value against all three pitches.
Soto is an autoplay for me at this price.
Pick: Juan Soto Home Run (22c, Kalshi)
Royals vs Astros Player Prop
It’s sad to see Cristian Javier’s career fall apart due to injury. The right-hander, once a Cy Young candidate, has struggled to find consistency since 2023.
While he still generates swings and misses at an elite rate (30.1%), he is a fly-ball pitcher that struggled to limit barrels (9.2%). Against right-handed hitters, that barrel rate jumps to 12.8%.
While the velocity is not there for Javier anymore, he still relies on his fastball. He throws that pitch 51% of the time against right-handed hitters, adding in a sweeper as his secondary pitch. Together, those pitches make up 79% of what righties see when Javier stands opposite them.
That is a perfect segue to Witt, who has a +5 run value against the fastball and an even better +6 run value against the sweeper.
Witt’s underlying metrics continue to pop, as the 26-year-old ranks in the 97th percentile of all qualified hitters in xSLG (.509). He is split-proof as well, posting an OPS over .800 against both righties and lefties. In fact, 14-of-18 home runs have come against right-handed pitching.
Javier is great to fade in the home run market thanks to his 50% fly-ball rate allowed. I’m happy to back Witt here, who has the advantage given the pitch mix he’ll see tonight.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (19c, Kalshi)
