Blue Jays vs Royals Odds & Prediction | MLB Betting Pick

Blue Jays vs Royals odds have visiting Toronto installed as a -122 favorite on the moneyline, with an over/under that has ticked up to 9.5. For my Blue Jays vs Royals prediction, I'll be targeting the home underdog on the moneyline (+102).

The Toronto Blue Jays are on a roll, winning six of their last eight games to begin a push up the AL East standings. They'll hope to continue this run on Monday at Kauffman Stadium in the series opener against the struggling Kansas City Royals.

Kansas City has dropped three of four after a tough series loss at home to the Baltimore Orioles. The Royals turn to Brady Singer as they try to get this week series started on the right foot. Can the Royals be the first team to get to the Blue Jays' Yusei Kikuchi, or will the left-hander continue on with his run of dominance?

Let's get into my MLB betting pick for this game in my Blue Jays vs Royals preview.

Yusei Kikuchi has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball through four starts. After putting up a few poor seasons (judging by the metrics), the 32-year-old has brought his strikeout rate up to career-best 33% and has limited hard-hit balls and barrels like he's never done before. To make it all the more impressive, three of these four starts have come against the Yankees (twice) and Rays (once).

He's found a way to get 51% of the balls coming back into play to come on the ground, which, on top of the strikeouts, has caused him to profile as a much safer option on the mound. His fly-ball rate is down six points, too, and the biggest reason has been the weaker contact he's allowed off his curveball and slider, which are dropping a significant amount more.

Toronto's offense is coming around at long last. A talented lineup — which found it difficult to string together good games a year ago — ranks 11th in wRC+, continuing to limit strikeouts and adding more walks to the equation. The power still isn't there, but it has found a bit more success by putting it on the ground at a higher clip.

Kansas City's young offense, which was one of the very worst in the league last season, has made great strides in 2024 to grade out as an average one to this point.

Like Toronto, it has been a bit more patient and has increased its walk rate to near-elite territory at roughly 10% — plus strikeouts are way down. Unlike the Jays, however, the Royals have been menacing in the power department with the sixth-best ISO in MLB.

The Royals have a rather surprisingly competent arm going on Monday in Brady Singer. The 27-year-old seems to finally be realizing his potential with a 1.54 ERA across four starts to begin his 2024 campaign, and while his xERA is up at a much more pedestrian 3.89, there's still plenty to like here.

Singer has taken what was a solid 50.2% ground-ball rate from a year ago and brought it up into the top 8% of all pitchers at 58.6%. While there have been a decent amount of balls coming back into play on account of his slightly above-average 25.6% strikeout rate, he's pitching to grounders behind the best infield defense in baseball, which leads the way with nine Outs Above Average, according to Statcast.

His walk rate is average and he's allowed an 8.6% barrel rate, but on the whole, he's a guy who should be able to successfully pitch to contact given the defense behind him and the way the balls are coming back into play. He could be this year's Dane Dunning or Kyle Hendricks.

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You need to know what to look for as a bettor, and in this case, I think Singer's inflated xERA is likely to blame for this line. Kansas City has had the better offense this season and both pitchers have been effective to this point, yet the total is high and the Jays are the favorites.

I'm a fan of both the under and Kansas City in this spot, but I think the bigger edge here is on the Royals. They've struggled a bit against lefties, but they hit for more power and have been excellent against sliders this season, which should put them in a good spot.

I think there are plenty of reasons to believe in Kikuchi going forward, but in a matchup between two teams doing a good job of not striking out, we'll have to think about what will transpire with a plethora of balls coming back into play. Toronto is putting it on the ground a lot, and will face a pitcher who throws a pitch they've struggled against — the sinker — who will have the benefit of elite defending behind him.

The Royals should be favored in this one, so I will take them as home underdogs.

Pick: Royals ML (+100)