Braves vs Giants Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Friday, August 25
Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Strider
Braves vs. Giants Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -148 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +126 |
The San Francisco Giants suddenly find themselves chasing after a wild-card spot following a brutal seven-game stretch which has seen them lose five times, including twice to the Braves.
They'll take aim at the best team in baseball once more, this time at home with their ace leading the charge. Will this series go differently for San Francisco?
Let's break it all down in our Braves vs. Giants preview and prediction.
It would seem, at least for the moment, that Spencer Strider has calmed down. After allowing 17 runs in the month of June and posting a 3.73 ERA in July, the flamethrower has put together three excellent performances in four August starts, pitching to a 2.70 ERA.
Strider's whiff rate remains elite at over 40% despite diminishing returns in the strikeout department, and his ground ball rate is over 41% once again, matching his best month of the season in July.
As you might guess with numbers like that, Strider's expected batting average is a tasty .173 — his best mark since April. After a brutal middle of the season, Strider's xBA continues to fall and now sits at .198 for the season which puts him in the top 7% of the league.
Walks have begun to become an issue, but the good news here is that after giving up a lot of home runs all year, Strider has yet to allow one since a July 26th start against Boston.
Quickly checking in on the Braves' offense, it's been business as usual for the kings of the National League. They rank fourth in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a spicy .287 average and elite strikeout and walk rates.
Atlanta's ISO stands at a solid .215, but we have seen more out of this team in the past. These numbers are merely routine at this point and nothing out of the ordinary.
Speaking of offensive production, the Giants have once again fallen into a slump. A team which has sold out for home runs seemingly all season has recorded a league-worst .127 ISO in the last two weeks with an extremely high 27.9% strikeout rate — the second-worst in baseball during that time.
The Giants are just 25th in fly ball rate during that time, however, so clearly something is amiss with this lineup. For comparison's sake, their 38.1% fly ball rate for the season is 12th, but they're roughly five points worse over the last two weeks.
Contact has always been hard to come by, but at least San Francisco had been putting itself in position to do damage when the ball was coming back in play up until the last couple of weeks.
On the hill for the home team, Logan Webb has started to look like himself lately. He did have a tough time against the Braves last week, allowing four runs on nine hits, but he allowed just one home run and has not allowed just five since June.
Webb remains one of the better ground ball pitchers in baseball, checking in 63.4% this month, though his xBA is at a season-worst .286. His hard-hit rate has begun to trend in the right direction, but it's still much, much higher than it was a season ago which is likely the cause for all the expected hits.
Braves vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Braves, like most good teams, have balance in their order. They've been right around the middle of the league in ground balls and fly balls, picking up hits any way they can and blending base hits with back-breaking power.
With that said, they're surprisingly in the top five of the league in ground ball rate over the last two weeks as they continue to find new ways to impress.
Considering Webb's high xBA for the month of August and his alarming hard-hit rate, it's fair to say he may have issues converting ground balls into outs against a team which has been routinely turning them into hits of late.
It's not a fantastic spot for the Giants right-hander, and on the other side it should be a great spot for Strider.
Strider's ability to miss bats here is going to be on full display against a Giants team which is waving at just about everything right now, and their inability to get the ball in the air should cost them against a guy who's really only been victimized by the longball this year.
I see a significant edge here with Atlanta. The only thing that can stop the Braves is their own boredom. By the numbers, this should be a win for the road team.
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