Braves vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Friday, September 15
Via Matthew Grimes Jr. Pictured: Bryce Elder #55 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates in the fourth inning during the game against the New York Mets at Truist Park on August 22, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds
The NL East champions meet an NL playoff contender in this crucial series as the Atlanta Braves take on the Miami Marlins.
Atlanta's official crowing as divisional champs was merely a formality, as they'd been running away with the division since April. Their double-digit lead over two playoff teams is impressive, and they've clearly established themselves as the best team in baseball.
As for the Marlins, they have surprised many this season and are in the midst of a tight race for the last NL Wild Card spot entering this matchup. The fish sit just a half-game out, and from here on out, every game is essentially a playoff game.
So, what's the best way to bet on this series opener? Let's dive in to find out.
A team at the top of the league has many strengths, but there's no doubt that what makes the Atlanta Braves special is their incredible lineup. It all starts at the top with likely NL MVP Ronald Acuna, who's proven to be the definition of a five-tool player.
Then you turn to Matt Olson, who has more than filled the shoes of Freddie Freeman this season with thunder. He has already tied the Braves club record for homers in a single season and will raise it much higher before October.
Those two and all the others that make up the most formidable lineup in baseball will be the responsibility of Johnny Cueto. Cueto has had a rough go of it in his age 37 season as he'll enter this start with a 6.15 ERA.
Surprisingly, he has not given up a ton of hard contact, but he does not miss many barrels at this point in his career, which is a bad sign for how he will fare against this Braves lineup.
We go from one lineup that tears the cover off the ball to one that has been doing much of the opposite. The Marlins do not have a lineup with much thunder, and it does not help that they play in a pitcher-friendly park to begin with.
Miami will have to contend with Bryce Elder, who has provided great stability for the Braves at the backend of their rotation. Elder's contact metrics suggest he's due for sizable regression, but we've learned that sinkerballers are a rare breed that can consistently outperform expectations because even the hard-hit balls are likely to be on the ground.
However, for this matchup, I'm looking at Elder's strikeout potential as he's being undervalued against a Marlins' lineup with much more swing and miss than their team strikeout rate portrays.
The Marlins may be 21st in team strikeout rate but have seven hitters on their roster with above-average strikeout rates.
Braves vs. Marlins
Betting Pick & Prediction
With little value in the side or total of this matchup, I'm looking towards Bryce Elder to provide us with the best edge. As mentioned above, the Marlins have more holes in their lineup than you would see on the surface, and Elder's strikeout total is too low.
Elder has appeared in 38 games in his young career, and he has gone over this strikeout total in 65.8 percent of them. That is implied odds of -192 that he will record four strikeouts tonight.
It also helps that our Action Labs projections are in favor of this over as well. They have him slated for 4.5 strikeouts.