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Brewers vs. Giants MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value Sitting on Visiting Milwaukee (Thursday, July 14)

Brewers vs. Giants MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value Sitting on Visiting Milwaukee (Thursday, July 14) article feature image
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John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers pitching ace Corbin Burnes.

  • The Giants host the Brewers on Thursday in a game featuring two Cy Young candidates on the hill.
  • Reigning Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes faces Giants standout Carlos Rodon, which has analyst Kenny Ducey excited for this matchup.
  • Check out which side he has landed on with a moneyline wager ahead of this clash.

Brewers vs. Giants Odds

Brewers Odds -108
Giants Odds -108
Over/Under 6.5 (-102 / -120)
Time 9:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

One of the most anticipated pitching matchups of the season will unfold in San Francisco on Thursday when the reigning Cy Young Award winner squares off with one of the favorites to win the award this season.

So, is there any edge to be found here with two excellent pitchers and a low betting total? Let’s get into this showdown.

Milwaukee Brewers

The first part of the equation is Corbin Burnes, who has worked around a few less-than-impressive outings this year to settle back in as one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers.

While his numbers aren’t quite as sharp as last season’s, it’s incredibly hard to replicate a season quite like the one he had with a 2.00 xERA and a 35.6% strikeout rate.

For an encore, Burnes has compiled a 2.20 ERA and 2.68 xERA through 17 starts, striking out 32.4% of batters he’s faced, which still sits in the top 7% of the league. He has also been elite in the walk department yet again at 6.3%, making it incredibly tough to get on base against this guy given his .211 xBA and incredible strikeout numbers.

One team that knows this all too well is the Giants, who have seen Burnes once this season and who did not enjoy their experience. Playing in Milwaukee, they struck out 11 times in 6 2/3 innings and managed just two hits and two walks in the process.

Finally, while no one in the world is turning in here to watch the Brewers hit, it’s worth noting they’re 12th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a spicy 9.8% walk rate next to some pretty average strikeout numbers and seventh-best .194 ISO this season.

San Francisco Giants

I referred to Carlos Rodon as one of the current Cy Young favorites, which I’d consider given he’s seventh in the current odds. That said, the fact that a guy this insane is listed at +1800 odds is hard to fathom.

Rodon can go toe to toe with Burnes, rocking an identical 2.70 ERA and 2.70 xERA and a 31% strikeout rate that ranks in the top 12% of baseball. His pitches have resulted in a .221 expected batting average, meaning the margin in the expected ERA is due to his 8% walk rate.

While he’s walked four in his last two outings, they’ve come across 14 total innings. On top of that, Rodon has really pulled himself back in after walking 12 batters in 27 May innings. He’s now walked just seven in his last 35. He’s faced 129 batters during that time, meaning his walk rate is just around 5.4 percent.

The Giants’ offense has lagged slightly behind the Brewers’. It ranks 14th over the last two weeks with a 103 wRC+ and has posted a poor 23.7% strikeout rate and .171 ISO over that span.

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Brewers-Giants Pick

The numbers would point to Burnes edging Rodon, plus they’d also point to the Brewers edging the Giants on the offensive side of things.

While I don’t exactly have a ton of faith in either order — particularly given the star-studded pitching matchup — I’d have to side with Milwaukee on the road.

Burnes has been a strikeout machine and so have the Giants. And while Rodon has improved in the walk department, he hasn’t improved nearly enough to combat a team drawing an inordinate amount of free passes at the moment.

Pick: Milwaukee ML (-110)

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