Brewers vs. Padres Odds & Picks: Will Corbin Burnes Bounce Back?
Casey Sykes/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.
- The Padres are home underdogs on Tuesday night against the Brewers.
- With Blake Snell making his second start of the year for San Diego against reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, which side has the edge?
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Brewers vs. Padres Odds
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Fresh off a walk-off single in the bottom of the 10th, the San Diego Padres look to keep the ball rolling against the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night. San Diego has won five straight and eight of its last 10.
Blake Snell takes the mound for the second time in 2022 for the Padres, and he’ll have his hands full against reigning Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes.
Can the Brewers bounce back behind their ace, or will the Padres continue to roll at Petco Park?
Brewers Bats Stepping Up
The identity of the Milwaukee Brewers has changed in 2022. Yes, they still have one of, if not the best pitching rotation in baseball. However, they finally have the offensive firepower to make them a complete team.
In 2021, the Brewers offense ranked 23rd in wRC++ and 19th in wOBA. They struck out often and sat in the middle of the pack in power. Despite that, they won 95 games, mostly because they allowed the third-fewest runs.
But the Brewers offense has finally hit a stride in the opening months of the season. Their wRC+ is all the way up to 13th, and their wOBA is seventh.
Offensive numbers are down in MLB in 2022, but the Brewers have ever-so-slightly improved across the board. The offseason addition of Hunter Renfroe (123 wRC+) has provided a significant boost.
That gives more leeway for pitchers like Burnes, who enters Tuesday with a 2.27 ERA. His Strikeout Rate remains above 30%, and he’s even walking fewer batters this season than in his Cy Young year.
One thing to note about Burnes is his xERA does sit nearly a run higher at 3.16, and his Barrel Rate has tripled from 2021. It’s not a huge concern early on — and his velocity hasn’t dipped — but something to monitor as the season progresses.
Can Snell Find His Form for the Padres?
Missing the beginning of the season with a groin injury, Blake Snell made his season debut last week against the Philadelphia Phillies, struggling through three and 2/3 innings.
The southpaw threw 84 pitches, lacked control — he walked three — and gave up three runs in the loss.
Looking back on his 2021 season, Snell struggled with location and hard contact. His xERA (4.82) sat over a half-run higher than his ERA (4.20), and he hasn’t been the same pitcher since leaving Tampa Bay.
Last season, Snell ranked in the bottom 10 percent in both Walk Rate and Barrel Rate. He over-performed with his fastball — a .213 batting average versus .248 xBA — and had a career-worst .431 xSLG against.
Snell is not the ace he once was, and while he still has the potential to dominate — think back to his last three starts of 2021 where he went 21 and 2/3 innings of three-run ball with 31 strikeouts — he’s been way more vulnerable since being traded to San Diego.
The 29-year-old made one start last season against Milwaukee and was charged with five runs over three and 2/3 innings in a loss.
The Brewers opened as slight favorites at -115 and have since been hammered down to -135 across most sportsbooks. The early jump was expected considering the pitching matchup and uncertainty that surrounds Snell.
While the Padres have been playing better as of late, it’s been their pitching, not hitting, doing the job. They are in the middle of the pack in both wRC+ and wOBA over the last 14, and that’s with Manny Machado continuing his early-season MVP-like tear.
The Brewers hold the edge both offensively and on the mound Tuesday night. Burnes has a sparkling 1.80 ERA through four starts on the road and a 1.07 ERA in night games.
Especially considering Burnes enters off his worst start of the season, I’d expect him to shut down this Padres lineup en route to a win.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (bet to -135)
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