Brewers vs. Pirates MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Betting Preview for Tuesday’s NL Central Battle (August 2)
Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes (Brewers)
- In a clash between two NL Central rivals, the Brewers look to take down the last place Pirates.
- The Brew Crew are sending their ace Corbin Burnes to the hill, creating a huge matchup adventage.
- Michael Ianniello breaks down the game and offers up his way of backing Milwaukee on Tuesday.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Superman has kryptonite. Tom Brady has Eli Manning. Angel Hernandez has the outside corner. And the Pittsburgh Pirates have the Milwaukee Brewers.
Pittsburgh is 118-182 against Milwaukee since 2005, the worst mark against any team in the league. They are 9-23 against the Brewers over the last two seasons.
These teams bookend the NL Central, with Milwaukee sitting atop the division and the Pirates holding down the bottom. The Buccos are 17 games back of the Brew Crew, the second fewest games separating an entire division.
Brewers Have Their Ace on Hill
The defending NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes (RHP) is back to his typical ways this season, currently sporting a lower ERA than his award-winning campaign. He holds a 2.31 ERA and 2.79 xERA, both top-five in the league.
Burnes has a devastating cutter, and his 11.55 K/9 rate is one of the best in the league. Only Shane McClanahan has a better K-BB% rate than Burnes does this year.
He is also one of those weird pitchers who is even better on the road, tossing to a dominant 1.57 ERA in away games this year.
With a dominating pitching staff, it was the Brewers’ bats that let them down last season. Now their pitching staff — outside of Burnes — has taken a step back this year, and the offense has been carrying them at times. Milwaukee sits seventh in wOBA and ninth in wRC+.
Can Pirates’ Wilson Keep Up With Opponent?
It has been a rough two years for Bryse Wilson (RHP). He got traded to Pittsburgh from the Atlanta Braves last year, who immediately went on to win a World Series.
Now this season, he has really struggled, going 1-6 with a 6.31 ERA in 13 games and 10 starts.
His xERA is a little better at 5.63, but it’s still in the bottom 5% of the league. He has been absolutely hammered, ranking in the bottom 5% of the league in xBA, xwOBA and Average Exit Velocity.
But hey, at least all his friends won rings.
Much like the last couple of years, the Pirates’ offense is an issue. They rank 28th in the league in wOBA and wRC+, and they have the second most strikeouts in the league. The Pirates already traded Daniel Vogelbach and could ship out more pieces before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
It isn’t often that a team firmly in the division lead trades away the best closer in baseball in the middle of the season. Milwaukee sent All-Star closer Josh Hader to the Padres on Monday for LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP Dinelson Lamet, LHP Robert Gasser and OF Esteury Ruiz.
It is a bit of a puzzling move in the sense that while they got some good pieces back, they are certainly a worse team than they were Monday morning.
That said, this matchup is still a huge mismatch. One of the best pitchers in the league in Burnes faces one of the worst in Wilson. On top of that, Milwaukee has won Burnes’ last five starts against the Pirates, outscoring them 47-11 in those five games.
With Burnes on the hill and with the Brewers featuring an offense that ranks fourth in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitchers this year, the Brew Crew should cruise to a win on Tuesday.
But laying -255 isn’t really a playable number.
Instead, go ahead and use Milwaukee as a two-team parlay piece. If you want some action on Jacob deGrom’s return to the big leagues, you can parlay the Brewers and Mets for -114. You could also tag them with Spencer Strider and the Braves for -105.
Pick a nice ML favorite you love on Tuesday, and attach the Brewers to them to get a better price.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML in Two-Team Parlay