Wednesday MLB Odds, Betting Picks, Predictions for Cardinals vs. Braves: Value on Over/Under (July 6)
Brett Davis/Getty Images. Pictured: Truist Park, home of the Atlanta Braves.
- The Atlanta Braves are riding high following two consecutive wins to open up their series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Atlanta is a heavy favorite on Wednesday evening, but could St. Louis be a live underdog buoyed by a compelling pitching matchup?
- MLB betting analyst Nicholas Martin previews tonight's MLB matchup, including updated odds, picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Braves at 7:20 p.m. ET.
Cardinals vs. Braves Odds
|Over/Under||9 (+100 / -120)|
|Time||7:20 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After consecutive wins to start the series versus St. Louis, Atlanta now boasts a 27-7 record since June 1 and is only 2.5 games behind the Mets in the division.
Max Fried draws the start for the Braves on Wednesday and looks to extend his active streak of 14 consecutive starts without a losing result.
The Cardinals counter counter with a great arm of their own: Miles Mikolas has been excellent this season. sporting a 2.61 ERA in 100 innings.
Does Mikolas make the Cardinals a live underdog in this spot?
St. Louis Cardinals
During the last five series, the Cardinals have hit to just a 103 wRC+ rating, which ranks 18th in MLB. St. Louis also reports a .312 wOBA during that span, which ranks 19th league-wide.
Additionally, the Cardinals have struck out at the eighth-highest frequency (24.5%) during that same span. The team’s 29th-ranked 0.27 BB/K rate demonstrates that the process at the plate has been far from ideal, especially looking away from the top bats in the order.
The Cardinals’ righty-heavy lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman has been far more potent against left-handed pitching this season. St. Louis has struck out just 20.5% of the time versus lefties and have hit to a 121 wRC+ with a .337 wOBA in 630 plate appearances.
Miles Mikolas has been in fantastic form, especially during his last five starts. During that recent span, Mikolas has accumulated an ERA of 1.85 in 34 innings. In his last two starts, he has limited opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 29%.
Furthermore, he owns a tremendous WHIP of 0.97 and has been true to form issuing very few free passes this season.
Opposing batters have accumulated a .475 OPS with runners in scoring position, which suggests that some regression is due with regards to runs allowed. Mikolas’ 3.37 xERA also supports that assessment. Nevertheless, Mikolas has been one of the better pitchers in the NL this season.
Mikolas owns a spectacular Quality of Pitch Average (QOPA) of 5.26 and has thrown four pitches to elite ratings this season.
After a slow start to the season, Max Fried has trended into tremendous form, amassing an ERA of just 1.97 over his last seven starts with a WHIP of 0.98.
Similar to Mikolas, Fried has fared favorably with runners in scoring position. However, Fried arguably holds something back for the bigger spots, which has been another part of his success outside of a strong K/BB rate.
Since 2020, Fried has allowed an average exit velocity of just 85 mph with runners in scoring position. That mark ranks 10th-best among pitchers who have logged 150 or more innings during that timespan.
Fried has allowed a .244 slugging percentage on his breaking pitches. His heavy usage of a quality slider and excellent curveball could be crucial in this spot. The Cardinals have hit to negative values versus each of those breaking pitches.
With Miles Mikolas on the mound and a righty-heavy lineup that has not been potent against left-handed pitching, the Cardinals certainly seem to be the more valuable side in this contest.
St. Louis was especially appealing at its opening price of +165. If you are able to find a price of +155 or better, then I still see some value backing the Cardinals to pull off the upset.
However with St. Louis currently sitting around +145 at most shops, I’m pivoting to the game total. I see value on the under, which is available at a number of 9 at close-to-even money. If you find a total of 9, then I would bet that down to -130.
While the Cardinals offense is more potent against left-handed pitching, it has stumbled recently. Even generating three runs in seven innings against Fried would have to be considered a win for St. Louis.
Max Fried has been on a ridiculous run of producing quality start after quality start. I believe that the game total of 9 is one half-run too high, so even a below-average start from Fried gives us a great chance.
Miles Mikolas has been dialed-in lately and is throwing the ball very effectively. Behind him, the Cardinals bullpen remains in excellent form and should have all the top arms ready to go tonight if the Cards end up in a more winnable position.
Pick: Under 9 (-114 up to -130)
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