Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Willy Adames Against Miles Mikolas (June 20)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Willy Adames.
- Tied atop the NL Central, the Cardinals and Brewers open a series tonight in Milwaukee.
- Corbin Burnes makes Milwaukee a heavy favorite, as he starts opposite Miles Mikolas.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the game and makes his betting pick below.
Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Cardinals will travel to Milwaukee for a massive four-game set with the rival Brewers, with each club entering at 38-30, tied atop the National League Central.
St. Louis will hand the ball to Miles Mikolas, who has been stellar so far in 2022, while the Brewers will counter with reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes.
Can we expect a pitcher’s duel in the series opener?
Mikolas Looks to Continue Strong Campaign
Mikolas’ 2.62 ERA in 82 1/3 innings comes with a lot of favorable underlying numbers. He is coming off a stellar performance last time out against the Pirates, against whom he was one strike shy of a no-hitter.
Mikolas has pitched to a truly elite QOPA of 5.21 and has five pitches in his arsenal that have a better than league average rating early this season, including four that could be considered elite. The right-hander has managed fewer strikeouts than you might expect given his elite stuff at 20.3%, but he’s allowed just a 4.9% walk rate and is inducing a lot of soft ground balls.
Mikolas was roughed up badly by the Brewers on May 29. Milwaukee managed six runs from two homers and a lot of hard contact over 5 1/3 innings.
St. Louis’ red-hot batting order will get quite a test themselves against Burnes. Over the last 30 days the Cards have hit to a 112 wRC+, with a .321 wOBA. The Cardinals have comparable splits against right and left-handed pitching, and have hit to a 108 wRC+ and .317 wOBA.
Cy Burnes Looks To Dominate St. Louis Again
Considering Milwaukee’s struggles against right-handed pitching over the last month, it is a little surprising to see it managed such a strong output the last time it faced Mikolas.
The Brewers have hit to a .295 wOBA against righties over the last month, and things seemed to hit a new-low in last Tuesday’s 4-0 shutout to the Mets.
However, the Brewers have seemed to get hot since that point, although it’s quite possible a weekend set with the Reds in Cincinnati helped inflate the appearance of a resurgence.
Milwaukee has hit slider’s very effectively this season to a 7.6 pitch value, which is surely an edge entering a matchup with Mikolas.
Burnes has remained his dominant self to start this season, and he was dominant the last time he faced the Cardinals, allowing two hits over seven scoreless innings on May 29.
Burnes has stellar analytics all across the board, with a 2.95 xERA this season. Opponents have hit just .138 against Burnes’ non-fastball pitches since the start of last season, which is the second-best rate in MLB among pitchers with 110 or more innings during that span, which is a concerning mark for the Cardinals.
My first lean looking towards this contest would be the Cardinals, considering how heavily favored Milwaukee are at this point at -175, but Mikolas’ outing just three weeks ago versus the Brewers is a little concerning to me. The total looks sharp, as well.
I’m actually seeing the most value on this contest backing Willy Adames to hit for over 1.5 bases in the contest.
Adames is slugging .732 on breaking pitches against right-handed pitchers this season, which Mikolas has thrown at the ninth-highest rate of qualified starters in the majors.
The fact that Mikolas generally hates to give in and walk next to any batters works in our favor, as well, and we should certainly see Adames manage four plate appearances at a minimum.
Adames is just 1-for-6 in his career against Mikolas. Back on May 29 against the right-hander, he grounded out three times, although two of those had exit velocities of 100 and 97 mph. I feel Adames is holding some quiet upside in this matchup.
Pick: Willy Adames — Over 1.5 Bases (-105, play to -115)
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