Cubs vs Padres Prediction, Odds Tonight: Moneyline Pick (April 9)

The Chicago Cubs play the second game of a three-game series against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night at Petco Park. Cubs vs Padres odds for Tuesday have the Padres installed as -143 favorites on the moneyline while the over/under sits at 8 runs. I'm targeting the Cubs moneyline for my Cubs vs Padres prediction, as I see value on them at plus money.

Coming off back-to-back series wins over the Rockies and Dodgers, it seemed like the Cubs were gaining some early momentum. The Padres overcame that on Monday night, however, erasing an eight-run deficit in a stunning 9-8 victory.

Chicago will look to rebound on Tuesday with rookie Ben Brown making his first career MLB start against San Diego ace Joe Musgrove.

Where does the betting value lie? Find my Cubs vs Padres moneyline pick below.

Taking the mound for the Cubs today is rookie right-hander Ben Brown.

Brown will be making his first career start tonight after making two relief appearances at the Major League level. In those two appearances, Brown put up an 11.12 ERA and struck out six batters in 5 2/3 innings.

This obviously hasn’t been a good start to the year for Brown, but his Stuff+ of 109 is impressive and shows there could be something positive there to work with.

Most projection systems have Brown putting up an ERA in the low-4s this season, with a strikeout rate around 24%.

Last season in Triple-A, Brown struck out 100 batters in 72 2/3 innings. Brown looks to be more of a strong late-bloomer rather than an innings-eater. I think he may be able to surprise some people over his first few starts.

At the plate, this Chicago lineup is off to a hot start.

The Cubs rank fourth in the league in wOBA and seventh in wRC+. A large part of this success has been their ability to get batters on base and avoid striking out. The Cubs have walked at the highest rate in the league this season (12.9%) while striking out only 19.2% of the time (seventh-best).

This has resulted in a team on-base percentage of .365 OBP — the best mark in baseball.

When the Cubs put the ball in play, they've been hitting it hard. They rank third in average exit velocity, second in barrel percentage and seventh in hard-hit percentage.

Padres starter Joe Musgrove will have his hands full in this one.

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After playing in the Seoul Series, Musgrove will already be making his fourth start of the young season. Musgrove’s first couple of starts didn’t go great, as he allowed four-plus runs in each of them and struck out only five batters.

However, it did seem like he rebounded last time out against St. Louis, going six innings and allowing only one earned run with seven strikeouts.

Musgrove owns a Stuff+ mark of 109 and had a 106 last year, so it seems like his stuff is in good form to begin the season.

However, location has been an issue for him. His Location+ is just 96, which ranks 84th out of 98 pitchers who have thrown 10 innings this season.

This has resulted in Musgrove’s pitches getting clobbered, especially in those first two outings. Musgrove has allowed an average exit velocity of 90.9 (26th percentile) and a 40% hard-hit rate. His xwOBA of .436 and xBA of .368 are both in the bottom 10% of the league this season.

After hitting six homers last night to complete their epic comeback, San Diego now ranks third in the league in home runs. The Padres rank 11th in wOBA and ninth in wRC+ to this point in the season.

This offense hasn’t been as productive as Chicago’s, but it's been a top-half unit and could pose a threat against a rookie pitcher.

This hot Cubs offense facing off against a good pitcher in Musgrove will be an interesting battle to watch. On the other side, it’s hard to know what to expect from Brown in his first career start, leaving loads of uncertainty.

However, I think the books are pricing this in. I’m not confident in Brown having some kind of electric outing, but his Stuff+ numbers and Statcast data have been on a similar level as Musgrove's despite the small sample size.

What I’m really betting on here is the Chicago offense. I think this unit will keep the Cubs around, even if Brown doesn’t put together the best outing.

I’ll take the Cubs to win the game at +140 due to their offensive advantage and would take them down to +130.

Pick: Cubs ML +140 (Play to +130)