We have MLB action all day, with this 15-game slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET with Rays vs. Tigers, but our focus on Wednesday will be in the evening.
We have bangers for these matchups: Royals vs. Blue Jays, Dodgers vs. Braves, and Orioles vs. Cardinals.
Read on for my 3 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 7:45 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs Blue Jays Prediction, Pick
The Royals get a great spot, and the odds on Carter Jensen and their main power guys are far too high.
Spencer Miles will be opening the game for the Blue Jays, and he has been a below-average matchup for power, but Simeon Woods Richardson should be coming in for long relief, and he's been a matchup that is well above average for power, allowing a 1.27 HR/9 to lefties and a 1.52 HR/9 to righties this season.
This ballpark has been top 10 for power the last few seasons, and I have the true odds for the Royals catcher at around +400.
Pick: Carter Jensen Home Run
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Dodgers vs Braves Prediction, Pick
This is a plus spot, and these odds are far too high. Dodgers SP Roki Sasaki has been a gas can for righty power this season, allowing a 2.03 HR/9.
Sasaki is due for some positive regression, but he still grades out as a plus matchup for righty power.
Ronald Acuna hasn't hit a ton of homers this season, but the underlying numbers show he's due for some heavy positive regression.
I have the true odds for the Braves RF at around +420.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Home Run
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Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick
This isn't a great spot for Pete Alonso, but these odds more than make up for it.
Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy has been good this season, but he has allowed only a 1.03 HR/9 to righties, which is below average.
The underlying numbers point to slight negative regression, but he still grades out as an average matchup for righty power.
This ballpark is below average for power, but the weather should be well above average for hitting, with temperatures in the high-80s and wind blowing out at 6 mph.
This spot is slightly above average for Alonso, and I have the true odds for the Orioles 1B at around +370.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run
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