Week Zero is here, and football is back. But that doesn’t mean we are finished on the diamond just yet!
The home stretch for the MLB regular season is here, and the playoff race is heating up. While the National League is largely a battle between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot, the final American League spot is wide open.
That’s right, even if you are eight games under .500, you are not out just yet – just 4.5 games back! Looking at you, Detroit Tigers.
Wednesday’s slate is a stacked one littered with day games. I’ve circled two players that I like to hit a home run, looking to bounce back from my first-ever 0-for this series last week.
So without further ado, let’s break it down. Read on for my top 2 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:10 PM | |
| 7:15 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Brewers vs. Mets MLB Player Prop
It’s been a down year for Christian Yelich, but he’s seemingly starting to find his groove when it matters most for Milwaukee.
Over the last two weeks, Yelich ranks inside the top 10 in xwOBA (.447), while his hard-hit rate has taken a noticeable step forward. Despite the drop-off in slugging, his underlying metrics remain similar to those from last season, when he finished with 29 home runs.
Yelich is still barreling the ball at a double-digit rate, and his chase rate has actually improved. What’s been most intriguing, though, is his recent exit velocity.
Since August 13, Yelich has put 24 balls in play. Of those, 37.5% have left the bat at 100-plus MPH.
Given the recent surge in hard contact, I’m expecting the home runs to follow. Yelich also draws a favorable matchup tonight against 36-year-old Robert Stock.
Stock has been a replacement-level arm for the Mets as their lost season continues. While his return to the big leagues has been a feel-good story, his underlying metrics remain concerning.
The right-hander is battling control issues, walking 13.6% of opposing hitters while also allowing a double-digit barrel rate. Combined with his low ground-ball rate, Stock looks like a candidate for negative regression moving forward.
Projection systems such as THE BAT X and ATC pegged Stock closer to a 1.1–1.2 HR/9 pitcher. He currently sits at just 0.54.
The Brewers are a difficult matchup for Stock, and with Yelich sitting at a long price, I’m happy to take a swing on him as a home run long shot tonight. I also don’t mind Jake Bauers – if he plays – as well, for what it’s worth.
Pick: Christian Yelich Home Run (12c, Polymarket)
Dodgers vs. Braves MLB Player Prop
I don’t have to say much about this one.
Shohei Ohtani is one of the best hitters in baseball. Despite his barrel rate dropping below 20% for the first time since 2023, the MVP candidate still ranks in the 97th percentile or better among qualified hitters in xBA (.293), xSLG (.575), barrel rate (16.6%), and xwOBA (.407).
It feels like a great time to buy Ohtani. Over the last two weeks, he’s tied for eighth in barrels with six, and he came inches away from a game-tying home run in the ninth inning last night. Now, he finds himself in another favorable matchup on Wednesday.
While I’m generally high on AJ Smith-Shawver’s long-term outlook, the 23-year-old remains a work in progress. He has struggled with his control and is generating a significantly lower whiff rate compared to previous seasons.
Smith-Shawver is a fastball-first pitcher who relies on high-90s velocity to overpower opposing hitters. The downside is that his approach can lead to plenty of fly balls and barrels.
Over the last two seasons with Atlanta, Smith-Shawver has allowed a concerning double-digit barrel rate. He also leans heavily on two pitches — his four-seam fastball and splitter — throwing them a combined 77% of the time.
Ohtani owns a positive run value against both pitches and should be well-positioned to take advantage of this matchup. At the current price, I’m happy to back Ohtani to leave the yard tonight.
