The Miami Marlins host the Boston Red Sox on August 26, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -155 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +135 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction
- Red Sox vs Marlins Pick: Red Sox ML
My Red Sox vs Marlins best bet is on Boston to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Marlins Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -130 | 7.5 -118o / -103u | -155 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +110 | 7.5 -118o / -103u | +135 |
- Red Sox vs Marlins moneyline: Red Sox -155, Marlins +135
- Red Sox vs Marlins over/under: 7.5 (-118o / -103u)
- Red Sox vs Marlins spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+110), Marlins +1.5 (-130)
Red Sox vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Sonny Gray (RHP, BOS) | Stat | Ryan Gusto (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-3 | W-L | 0-3 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 2.79 / 3.62 | ERA / xERA | 4.37 / 4.29 |
| 3.60 / 3.64 | FIP / xFIP | 4.00 / 4.14 |
| 15.5% | K-BB% | 14.1% |
| 47.2% | GB% | 39.6% |
| .286 | BABIP | .302 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 97 | Location+ | 102 |
Red Sox vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
This one sets up well for Boston, especially with Sonny Gray on the mound. The Red Sox are 18-6 in his starts this season, and that number gets even more impressive on the road, where they’re 9-1 in his last 10 starts.
Gray has also been solid lately, posting a 2.84 ERA with 17 strikeouts and just four walks over his last three appearances. With Boston sitting at 73-59 and 39-27 away from home, the veteran right-hander gives them a strong edge in this matchup.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Marlins, meanwhile, are 67-66 and have been excellent at home with a 41-27 record. Ryan Gusto has matched Gray’s recent ERA, also posting a 2.84 mark over his last three appearances while recording 12 strikeouts and just two walks.
Miami does have a consistent bat to rely on in Xavier Edwards, who enters this game riding a season-high 16-game on-base streak. Still, with Boston's success behind Gray and its strong road record, I like the Red Sox to have the edge here.
Red Sox vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
Evan Abrams' Late-Season Humidity Hammers BetLab System isolates a strong edge by targeting late-season road favorites playing in high-humidity environments.
In Games 121-159, playoff contenders are often mispriced against lesser opponents due to perceived travel fatigue. However, high humidity elevates offensive output, allowing deep, high-performing rosters to out-muscle softer home teams.
This system aligns perfectly with the Boston Red Sox traveling to face Miami. Boston holds a supreme starting pitching advantage in Sonny Gray, but Boston’s elite road form and superior roster depth allow them to dominate under heavy environmental conditions.
Back the Red Sox Moneyline.
Pick: Red Sox ML
