The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Detroit Tigers on July 21, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSDET.
The Pirates will try to break their second-half losing streak against the Detroit Tigers, who stopped their own skid on Sunday. Pittsburgh is a -131 favorite.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Pirates Prediction
- Tigers vs Pirates picks: Tigers ML +104 (Play to -120)
My Tigers vs Pirates best bet is on the Tigers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Pirates Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +177 | 7 -112o / -109u | +107 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -219 | 7 -112o / -109u | -131 |
Tigers vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jack Flaherty (DET) | Stat | RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | W-L | 4-8 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.0 |
| 4.65/4.06 | ERA /xERA | 2.01/2.49 |
| 4.63/3.63 | FIP / xFIP | 2.41/3.06 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 0.93 |
| 3.1 | K-BB% | 4.4 |
| 34.1 | GB% | 46.9 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 101 | Location+ | 11 |
Sean Paul’s Tigers vs Pirates Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: No Support for Skenes
It felt inevitable that Paul Skenes would deal with some level of a sophomore slump. That’s the case for most players as the league adjusts, but he’s just a different breed. The NL CY Young front-runner leads the MLB with a 2.01 ERA.
I don’t expect much regression here either, as Skenes has a 2.49 xERA and 2.41 FIP.
However, Skenes is already on pace to shatter his 133 innings from last year. The Pirates have kept it safer with his workload lately. He last surpassed 90 pitches four starts ago, coincidentally, against the Tigers. He's gone five or fewer innings in four straight outings as well.
Instead of pushing for the extra inning, the Pirates would rather burn out their bullpen than push their workhorse more. And if that stays the same, then it's an advantage for the Tigers.
Even with Skenes’ dominance, he has just four wins this year, which further devalues the pitcher wins stat. But it also probably means the Pirates shouldn’t enter as a favorite, even with arguably the top pitcher in the game on the bump.
The Pirates' offense is still in All-Star break mode. They struggled before the All-Star break, so the few days off felt like a good reset. Instead, they scored seven runs in three losses against a dreadful White Sox pitching staff.
In July, no offense has been worse than the Pirates', as they have a disastrous 43 wRC+ through 13 games. It's not like the Pirates are unlucky, either; they have five homers in 13 games (nobody else has less than 11), and they're the only team with an ISO below .100.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Flaherty's Chance to Shine
The Tigers finally put an end to their six-game losing streak on Sunday with a nail-biting win over the Rangers. It took a brilliant start from Tarik Skubal to make up for the offensive struggles in the finale.
They could use another dazzling outing to kick off this series.
It's in the hands of Jack Flaherty, who's due for some positive regression. The veteran right-hander holds an unsavory 4.65 ERA and 4.36 FIP, but his 4.05 xERA and 3.63 xFIP are brilliant indicators for positive regression.
Flaherty is a strikeout machine, punching out a career-best 11.09 batters per nine. The main issue for Flaherty is that he's allowing 1.70 HR/9, which is another career-high.
Thankfully, against the Pirates, Flaherty shouldn't be too concerned about the home run ball. They don't hit those anyway. He should be able to keep this dreadful lineup off-balance with his high fastball and sharp curveball to garner plenty of whiffs.
Detroit is in the midst of its worst offensive stretch in its magical 2025 season. Since July 1, the Tigers rank 19th in MLB with a 95 wRC+. In this matchup, it'll behoove Detroit to remain patient, like it did last month against Skenes.
The goal isn't to score five runs on Skenes. That's pretty unrealistic, but if Detroit can get him out by the sixth inning, that's a huge win.
During the Tigers' shaky stretch, they rank first in MLB with a 10.5% walk rate and fifth-worst with a 24.2% strikeout rate. I love both those numbers because they're built to get Skenes out quickly.
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Give me the plus money with the Tigers here. It's not a fade of Skenes, it's a fade of this terrible Pirates team, which has no business being a favorite over arguably the best team in the American League.
Skenes is the Felix Hernandez of this generation, and backing him isn't profitable with these prices on such a poor team.
Pick: Tigers ML +104 (Play to -120)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm going with Detroit here.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not interested in the spread.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total today.
