Giants vs Diamondbacks Odds & Prediction | MLB Betting Preview
Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Odds & Prediction | MLB Betting Preview
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-140 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +143 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -170 |
Giants vs Diamondbacks odds have the Giants installed as -140 favorites on the moneyline in this NL West clash on Thursday. The over/under is set at 8, and will be key to my Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction.
The Diamondbacks (9-10) are still looking to find their footing this season after dropping a series at home to the Cubs. Now they travel west to Oracle Park to face the Giants (8-11), who are coming off a series win over the Marlins.
Can Ryne Nelson win this one for the road team against a struggling Logan Webb, or will the dominant righty return to form in his friendliest matchup to date? Let's get into my Giants vs Diamondbacks pick in this MLB betting preview.
The Diamondbacks didn't exactly have the most imposing offense in the world last season, relying on contact and speed to score runs. They boasted an excellent strikeout rate, which has carried over into 2024, and unlike 2023, they've managed to get on base a bit more via the walk.
A sudden burst of home runs led them to the World Series, but the power for this team has always been sporadic and Arizona's ISO this season is actually a hair lower. That'll happen when you're one of the ground-ball happiest teams in the league.
Speaking of which, starting pitcher Ryne Nelson has induced slightly more ground balls this season, which has paired nicely with a near five-point rise in strikeouts. With more ground balls, Nelson's Expected Batting Average is now a much more palatable .258, though he'll need to continue improving in the ground-ball department to successfully pitch around low strikeout totals.
Nelson was up at an average mark of 42.9% in his second start of the season and up over 57% in his last outing, so things are trending in the right direction. The unfortunate part is that the Giants put the ball in the air a ton, but Nelson will be pitching in an even friendlier park here than his home turf in Arizona.
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The Giants offense may be in the middle of the pack through the first few weeks of the season, but they've shown flashes of brilliance — over the last week of play, they're eighth in wRC+.
San Francisco is always going to trend to the three true outcomes — with high strikeout and walk numbers coupled with a plethora of fly balls — but the good news here is that it's third in hard-hit balls per swing and just outside the top 10 in Expected Slugging.
Homers are hard to find in San Francisco, and the proof is in the fact that the Giants have slugged 17 round-trippers — all of which on the road. At home, the Giants are slashing just .225/.282/.278 as opposed to .255/.328/.426 on the road.
On the hill, Logan Webb has been a rather curious case. He's developed into one of the most reliable pitchers over the last three seasons, pitching expertly to contact with some of the highest ground-ball rates in the league, but he was torched in Spring Training and that poor form has carried over into the start of the season.
Sure, his ERA is fine (3.80), but there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the Giants ace. While he's never been an excellent strikeout arm, dipping down nearly six percentage points to 17% this season has stung given his .328 Expected Batting Average — something that's directly correlated with a 12.7-point drop in ground balls and a near 10-point rise in line drives.
Webb may be allowing softer contact, but the trajectory of the ball coming off the bat is much more favorable for hitters.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Giants have been one of my favorite teams to find betting angles for this season, given I think this team is much better than their record and is a bit underrated considering the talented bats up and down the order.
With that said, their approach simply doesn't work as well at home and there are plenty of reasons to believe in Ryne Nelson. He should be able to pitch to plenty of fly balls — which won't be a killer in spacious Oracle Park — and while walks are a bit of a concern and could ultimately cost him some runs, I don't think it'll be nearly enough to see an offensive explosion from San Francisco.
On the flip side, a matchup with one of the most ground ball-forward offenses in baseball should be just what the doctor ordered for Logan Webb. With his very low walk rate, the Diamondbacks should be stripped of their greatest improvement through three weeks of the season. With the eighth-best infield defense in baseball behind him, according to Outs Above Average, things should go well.
I'm not totally out on the Giants offense, but I do think this one will be a pitchers' duel with San Francisco still searching for its first home run at Oracle Park and any life to speak of offensively in these home games.
Pick: Under 8 (-115; Caesars)
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