Dodgers vs. Braves Game 3: Sharp Betting, Windy Weather Impacting Odds (Oct. 14)
Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Globe Life Field
For those who track sharp action in the betting market, while it’s usually not too difficult to decipher what sharps are betting, it’s certainly not always clear why they’re betting it. The simple answer, of course, is that they’re projecting the game differently than the market is, but then you can ask again, why are their projections different?
Tonight’s Dodgers-Braves Game 3 is one in which the reason for the sharp attention might actually be something everyone — whether you’re a baseball analytics expert or a first grade student — is familiar with.
We’ll start with the bet, and then get into the why (as if the title didn’t already give that away).
Dodgers vs. Braves PRO Report
Despite this being one of the highest totals of the Postseason thus far — it could potentially close as the highest since 2017 if it holds — big bets from sharps have been landing on the over.
Fifty-eight percent of bets on this total have come on the over, which isn’t too surprising given that the majority of bettors would prefer to root for offense. But that’s probably not quite enough to get oddsmakers thinking about line move in itself.
Instead, sharp action — confirmed by a Sports Insights Bet Signal — hit this over at 9.5 (-105) this morning, sending the consensus juice up to -125, and some books all the way up to a new over/under of 10.
Sharp Action edge: Over
Also pointing toward a sharp backing of the over: that 58% majority has generated a significantly higher percentage (79%) of money, meaning bigger bettors are taking the over.
And while big bets can technically come from anyone, they’re more likely to come from sharps over a large sample, so a significant discrepancy between bets and money can serve as another sign of sharp action.
Big Money edge: Over
Dodgers vs. Braves Weather Report
Onto the “why” (maybe).
Wind speeds are expected to be in the double digits in Arlington this afternoon into the evening, and that breeze will be blowing out to left at Globe Life Field.
Of course, the new home of the Rangers does have a retractable roof, but it’s been open for all five Postseason games it has hosted thus far, and there’s no sign of precipitation in the forecast tonight.
As for the specific impact of wind, our database (which dates back to 2005 for MLB) reveals a 52.5% over rate in games with winds greater than 10 mph blowing toward one of the three outfield directions. And that’s on a sample of more than 2,200 games.
Making tonight’s forecast an even more noteworthy one, though, is the temperature. Hot weather has historically been a good sign for runs, and tonight’s average temperature of 86 degrees certainly fits that description.
Combining the 11-plus mph wind speeds with temps of 75 degrees or more returns a 55.9% win rate to the over (405-319-28), and bumping that threshold up to 85 degrees makes for a 61.1% clip (129-82-10).
So, whether the weather is actually the reason for tonight’s sharp backing of the over is difficult to confirm. But if it is, history says the pros are making the right move.