Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks MLB Picks, Odds: Can Arizona’s Offense Keep It Going? (Thursday, May 26)
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Daulton Varsho and Pavin Smith
- The Dodgers are understandable favorites in tonight's game against the Diamondbacks.
- Los Angeles will open with Mitch White, while Arizona counters with Humberto Castellanos.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Over/Under||9.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks will meet for the third series between them this season after Arizona took the first series and Los Angeles the second.
Once again it’s the Diamondbacks who are flashing the better form, but does that mean they can be trusted on Thursday night? Let’s dig into this one.
Dodgers Driven By Offense
Let’s make no mistake about it, the Dodgers are still winning machines. Though they’ve lost two of four entering this series, they’re still the winners of nine games in their last 11.
The offense has been the driving force behind the Dodgers’ success. They’re second in wRC+ to only the Red Sox in the past two weeks and have coupled a low 22.1% strikeout rate with a beefy 11.9% walk rate during that time.
For the season, L.A. is eighth in barrel rate, fifth in hard-hit rate and third in xwOBA. While they make a good deal of quality contact, it’s quietly the Dodgers’ ability to get on base via the walk which really puts them into an elite category.
Mitch White will get the ball here, and he’s played the role of opener to this point for the Dodgers. He hasn’t exactly done it well, pitching to a 6.17 ERA in 11 2/3 innings, though his 3.66 ERA from a year ago coupled with a 4.56 xERA would seem to indicate perhaps we need to wait to cast judgment here. White’s strikeout rate sits at 26% this season, up from 24.9% a year ago.
Diamondbacks Clicking Offensively
The Diamondbacks , technically speaking, are in better form than the Dodgers. They’ve won five of six entering this weekend series with L.A., and their last series loss actually came a week ago when they were swept in four games by these same defending champions.
The offense has really kicked it into gear for Arizona, producing 6.3 runs per game in the last six. Mimicking the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks have had a walk rate north of 10% over the past week which has been a big factor here.
They rank 21st in contact rate over that period in time but fifth in hard-hit rate. The recipe for success has been getting runners on base and finding solid contact at opportune times.
Humberto Castellanos will be the starter here for Arizona, and while he’s been unspectacular, he’s done some stuff well in 2022. His walk rate has been very good at 6% and while he’s been rather average in the exit velocity department his expected ERA is at a comfortable 3.94.
He has yet to face the Dodgers this season, but he’s only allowed more than three earned runs in one start.
White has been a big disappointment thus far, and while I think that could easily turn around I’m not sure he’ll take much pleasure in facing the Diamondbacks’ lineup as presently constructed.
I expect Castellanos to continue being a rock for Arizona, and while he may not get through five scoreless he should do enough to keep the Diamondbacks in the game here. Arizona has gotten it done against L.A. before and it can do it again here at home.
Pick: Diamondbacks First Five +0.5 (+110)