Dodgers vs Mets Same-Game Parlay: MLB SGP Picks

Dodgers vs Mets Same-Game Parlay: MLB SGP Picks article feature image

(Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) Pictured: Mookie Betts

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will meet in a double-header on Tuesday afternoon after the start of their three-game set in Queens was pushed back a day due to rain.

Tyler Glasnow will take the ball for the visitors and is looking to find his way after a pair of rocky home outings. The Mets will counter with righty Tylor Megill, who will be making just his third start of the season.

Here's my Dodgers vs Mets Same-Game Parlay: MLB SGP Picks for Game 1 of the doubleheader, which starts at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.

Dodgers vs Mets Same-Game Parlay: MLB SGP Picks (+438, FanDuel)

  • Under 8 (-120)
  • Tylor Megill 5+ Strikeouts (-128)
  • Mookie Betts To Record A Run (-190)

Under 8 (-120)

The first place I'm heading here is the under. While there are some clear issues with how Megill has pitched through two starts, such as walking five in nine innings, he's done plenty of good. The 28-year-old has pitched to a large complement of fly balls, which are rewarded at a spacious Citi Field and haven't been hit terribly hard, as seen by a solid .223 Expected Batting Average Against. That comes along with a near-30% strikeout rate, and while he may not be able to keep that up, if he can just stay above the league average he should be able to pitch around the walk issues.

The Dodgers are hitting just .221 over the past two weeks, ranking 18th in wRC+ with a disappointing .152 Isolated Power. This is a team that's not been at full flight in a month, and although Megill is the bigger liability of the two pitchers, I think L.A.'s been flat enough and he's pitched well enough to take us home here.

Glasnow's had issues over his past two outings, but he's still scattered just 10 hits and two walks over 10 frames with 14 strikeouts. He's largely been fine, and the Mets are striking out at a high 24% clip over the past 14 days with a low .234 average and a poor 6% walk rate, which should keep the flamethrower out of trouble.

Tylor Megill 5+ Strikeouts (-128)

I do like both pitchers to hit their strikeout props, but Megill seems to be the better value. Yes, he's never been much of a strikeout arm, but he did strike out four over four innings against the Brewers before punching out seven Guardians in his most recent start. The Dodgers' strikeout rate has sat above what we've been used to seeing of late and for the past two weeks, they're 11th in swinging strike rate.

Megill has induced a whiff on a stunning 30.8% of swings through his two outings and should be well positioned to cash this leg with the Dodgers' lack of patience over the past 14 days.

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Mookie Betts to Record a Run (-190)

Given the nature of this same-game parlay, we'll actually see a much nicer boost in the overall price by combining this with the Under than we would if, say, we just added Glasnow to hit the over on his strikeouts at a cheaper -128 price.

The thinking here is that Betts is going to be on base a lot. We mentioned that walks have been an issue for Megill this year. Well, Betts is walking at a high 12.5% clip over the past two weeks and striking out just 8.3% of the time, which should make him a very tough matchup for Megill.

The veteran is also hitting a handsome .310 over this span and while he hasn't scored a run in five games, I think the hitters directly behind him have remained patient.

He should find himself on base a ton given his premium position in the lineup, and I have faith that those behind him will move him into scoring position at least twice.

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