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Dodgers vs. Nationals Odds, Picks, Predictions: Trends Point to High-Scoring Matchup (Tuesday, May 24)

Dodgers vs. Nationals Odds, Picks, Predictions: Trends Point to High-Scoring Matchup (Tuesday, May 24) article feature image
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Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Walker Buehler (Dodgers)

  • The Dodgers take on the Nationals in the second matchup of their three-game set in D.C.
  • After scoring 10 runs on Monday, the Dodgers are now 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games.
  • Mike Ianniello breaks down why he believes that trend is likely to continue on Tuesday.

Dodgers vs. Nationals Odds

Dodgers Odds -210
Nationals Odds +176
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Los Angeles holds the best record in the National League and is just a half-game back of the Yankees for the best record in all of baseball. The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have a +97 run differential, the best mark in the league by more than 30 runs.

At an impressive 28-13 record, their expected record is actually even better at 30-11.

Washington, on the other hand, is way down in the MLB standings, with the second-worst record in the league at just 14-29. The Nationals are just one game ahead of the Reds for the worst record in baseball.

The Dodgers’ offense is scorching hot right now and is coming off of a 10-1 drumming of the Nationals in the series opener on Monday. Can we expect another beatdown on Tuesday, or will the Nats put up a fight?

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Are There Issues With Dodgers’ Buehler?

On the surface, it appears to be business as usual for Walker Buehler (RHP). Through eight starts, he’s 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA.

But look a little deeper, and things are less dominant. Buehler has an xERA of 3.59 and xFIP of 3.69.

The biggest concern for Buehler is he’s no longer missing bats. After entering this season with a 9.92 career K/9 rate, it has dropped to 7.52.

The biggest drop off has been his fastball. His four-seamer generated a 23.8 K% last season, and that number has plummeted to just 10% this year and has been hit to a .365 batting average.

It’s no surprise that MLB’s largest payroll has resulted in MLB’s best lineup. Los Angeles leads the league in runs by more than 20. It has the highest wOBA and leads the league in walk rate.

Mookie Betts is red hot, smashing five home runs in the last two weeks. Former Nat Trea Turner is also heating up, batting .364 over the last two weeks. Betts, Turner, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith all have a wRC+ over 120.


Nats Need Soto to Be Better

Los Angeles traded Josiah Gray (RHP) to Washington last season as part of the deal for Max Scherzer and Turner. The former Dodger will make his first-career start against his former team and his eighth start of the season. It has been a mixed bag so far, as he’s 4-3 with a 4.36 ERA and 4.66 xERA.

Gray has had three starts allowing one run or fewer, but also three allowing at least four. Gray has good stuff, generating a Whiff% over 37% with both his curveball and his slider. However, he’s struggled with his control, boasting a 3.74 BB/9.

While their pitching staff has failed them greatly, the Nats’ offense has been decent enough to keep them in some games. Since the start of May, Washington ranks ninth in wOBA and 12th in wRC+

Juan Soto has been good, but not his usual all-world level. He’s batting just .245 with a .833 OPS, which both would be career lows. However, he’s gotten a bit unlucky — he has a .372 wOBA, but a .422 xwOBA.

As we saw last season, when he finally gets going … watch out.

Dodgers-Nationals Pick

The Dodgers’ offense is red hot, scoring 6.2 runs per game during the month of May. They have scored a remarkable 131 runs this month, and Betts, Freeman and Turner are all red hot.

Washington has allowed the most runs in the league, surrendering 5.3 per game. Gray has a had a couple of good outings, but also some blow-up games. His biggest weakness is control, and Los Angeles is the most patient team in the league with the highest walk rate.

Buehler has not looked as dominant as we’ve come to expect, and he’s really struggling to miss bats. His fastball has been hammered this season, and Washington ranks seventh in the league against fastballs over the last month.

Over the last 10 games, the Dodgers are 7-3 to the over. While I expect their offense to do most of the heavy lifting (they cleared the total by themselves on Monday), I do think Washington can chip in a few to help push this total over 8.5 on Tuesday.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) (Play to -120, or 9 to -105)

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