Dodgers vs Reds Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Thursday, June 8
Via Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on June 02, 2023 in Los Angeles, California.
- The Dodgers are road favorites on Thursday afternoon as they look to avoid a sweep against the Reds.
- Los Angeles sends Clayton Kershaw to the mound, and Cincinnati counters with Graham Ashcraft.
- Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet for Dodgers vs. Reds below.
Dodgers vs. Reds Odds
While the high-scoring matchups are entertaining, the Reds walking off in victory each night has made them even better. The Reds are certainly inspired by the call-up of Elly De La Cruz, who has done nothing but scorch baseballs since his arrival on Tuesday.
However, this red-hot Reds lineup will have to contend with arguably the greatest left-handed pitcher of our generation, Clayton Kershaw. So, can the Reds complete the series sweep in style?
Let's take a closer look to find out.
While the Dodgers have dropped the first two games of this series, it is not due to a lack of offensive production. Los Angeles has scored 14 runs through the first two games of the series, and the metrics point to that success continuing today.
The Dodgers are an elite offensive team, ranking second in Barrel Rate and third in wOBA. They make a ton of loud contact, and that has put them in line for positive regression, as their xBA is 13 points higher than their current team's batting average.
That high amount of quality contact also has them ranked second in the majors in xSLG and xwOBA. All of that is before you add in the great matchup they have in front of them, and the favorable hitters' park that they are playing in this afternoon.
Los Angeles will face Graham Ashcraft, who entered this season with a bunch of preseason hype but has yet to live up to it. Through 12 starts, the Reds right-hander holds a 6.64 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.
He has not been missing bats like we saw in spring, and his outlook is bleak this afternoon.
The Reds' offensive resurgence in this series has been fun to watch. Elly De La Cruz's arrival has given them a boost, but it may be short-lived as they have a tall task in front of them today.
They will be up against Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw looks as strong as ever in his 14th season, as the numbers show he is far from a crafty old left-hander. He has looked nearly unhittable, as his Strikeout and Whiff Rates are among the top-20 percent in baseball. However, when hitters have made contact, it has usually been soft, as he ranks in the top-25 percent in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-hit Rate Allowed.
He faces a Reds lineup that has undoubtedly been sparked lately, but looking at the bigger picture, is due for some sizable regression. Cincinnati is hitting .256 as a team but has an xBA of .239. The Reds rank last in Hard-hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity, which means their spark is due to burnout, and with Kershaw on the mound, there is a good chance it will happen this afternoon.
Dodgers vs. Reds Betting Pick
The Reds may have taken the first two games of this series in exciting fashion, but the Dodgers are lined up to salvage this final game in a big way. They have been tearing the cover off the ball and will continue to do so against a struggling Graham Ashcraft.
We should see them give plenty of run support to Clayton Kershaw, who may not need much. Cincinnati's lineup is due for significant regression, and Kershaw is the guy to knock them back to earth.
Back the Dodgers to run away with this one by taking them on the run line.