MLB Tuesday Weather: Wind, Money Driving Giants vs. Cubs Over/Under

MLB Tuesday Weather: Wind, Money Driving Giants vs. Cubs Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cole Hamels.

  • Tonight's San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET) matchup is expected to be played in windy conditions.
  • Using the Action Network's betting tools, we analyze how the forecast and an influx of betting action is affecting the Giants vs. Cubs over/under.

MLB Betting Odds: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs 

  • Giants odds: +177
  • Cubs odds: -198
  • Over/under: 10.5
  • Probable starters: Tyler Beede (3-7, 5.77 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (6-4, 3.69 ERA)
  • First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET

Baseball is back at Wrigley Field and weather is playing a factor. The MLB weather situation has been dull recently, but that’s to be expected as the temperatures cool down and we head toward September.

There’s nothing dull about this game though, as the total has already moved 1.5 runs.

Perhaps the uncharacteristic season has caused oddsmakers to forget that winds blowing out at Wrigley generally means:

  • More runs
  • Lots of action on the over

Despite winds blowing out at 9 mph tonight, this total opened at just 9, which is low these days as totals of 10+ are a dime a dozen.

Good for you if you hopped on that 9 early because you got some serious closing line value. After about five minutes at 9, this total rose to 9.5, then 10 and finally 10.5 shortly before noon ET.

It appears to have settled in at that number as of 3 p.m. ET.

To move a total 1.5 runs, books need to see some major cash flow, which is exactly the case for this game. If we check our betting percentages, the over is getting 57% of bets but 93% of the loot.

As I mentioned before, it’s been a garbage season when it comes to betting overs at Wrigley when wind is blowing out:

  • 2005-2018: 77-44-4 (63.6%)
  • 2019: 1-7-1 (12.5%)

Though double-digit runs have been scored in five of the nine games this year, oddsmakers have been setting the bar quite high and have angered those of us who make a habit of weather-related bets.

Jumping on these windy totals at Wrigley early is definitely a key. In a similar situation for a Padres-Cubs game last month — exactly one month ago, in fact — I took over 11 (the opener) and it closed at 12.5.

Eleven runs were scored that day.

I’d like to tell you that I hold an over 9 ticket for today’s game, but alas, I do not. For those of you looking to bet Wrigley openers, the over/unders typically open around 9:30 a.m. ET.

Historically, overs are 7-6-1 on the closing line for windy Wrigley overs that have risen at least one run since opening. Not terrible, but I personally tend to stay away from MLB totals that have already moved one or more runs.