You have to check out Fanatics Sportsbook's newest big-money contest, the MLB Long Ball Jackpot.
It’s already paid out some big winners… Maybe you’ll be next?!?!
Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: An Introduction
Here's how it works:
- Opt in and bet a minimum of $5 on a player to hit a runs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">home run. You can only select one player.
- If your player hits the longest home run on the MLB slate, you split $50,000 in FanCash with everyone else who bet that player.
- But because the longest home run on a given day is pretty random and about 270 players are eligible on a 15-game slate, there have been some huge winners already.
- Home run distance is measured via MLB's StatCast, which captures "the flight of the path based on radar as far as the radar will allow us to track it" and "if the radar loses it, we project beyond it based on the physics." So, it's not a perfect measurement.
While Fanatics is the first sportsbook to run a competition based on the length of home runs in baseball, several other sportsbooks offer similar contests.
For example, DraftKings runs the NBA King of the Court contest, in which the player who bets the highest PRA total on the slate wins. Of course, this more often than not results in minuscule payouts, given how top-heavy the league is.
On the contrary, the Long Ball Jackpot offers much greater randomness, resulting in much higher payouts.
As such, the contest is far more strategic.
Long Ball Game Theory
On the surface, you’d think you want to target players who hit a ton of homers.
But the game theory in this contest runs deeper, with more statistical variables to consider.
For starters, average home run distance and launch angle are of vital importance for picking Long Ball Jackpot winners. Any search for this contest should start by identifying a group of players who thrive in these categories.
Additionally, you have to take the weather, specifically wind speed, into account. Heavy winds can drastically impact the distance of any home run. At the same time, take into account the ballpark, as some are far easier than others to hit longer homers.
Finally, taking a contrarian stance in this contest is the best route. There’s little correlation between how elite a hitter is and how long he can crush a home run on any given day.
To maximize potential profit, you must get creative with your selections so your winnings are not split among a large group.
MLB HR Picks for Thursday, April 23
Munetaka Murakami
@ Diamondbacks, 3:40 PM ET
Murakami has hit a home run in five straight games, I know, but we have to keep riding him in this spot.
The Diamondbacks are rolling out with SP Michael Soroka, who has been struggling vs lefties this year and has a higher HR per 9 innings rate when seeing southpaw batters.
Soroka has a higher fly-ball rate and hard-contact rate vs righties as well
Murakami has seven of his 10 HRs against RHP already this year. At this stage of the season, we may as well keep betting on the hot bat in a warm weather environment.
Pick: Munetaka Murakami Home Run
Jake Burger
vs. Pirates, 8:05 PM ET
Burger has 5 home runs this season as a huge power hitter in the Rangers' lineup.
He'll be facing Bubba Chandler, who has an above-average fly-ball rate and a decent hard-contact rate by opposing batters, especially righties.
This game will be in Texas, which should allow some of the warmer weather to give the ball an extra boost to go further
Burger should be able to take the Pirates yard and get us a decent chance to cash the jackpot.
Pick: Jake Burger Home Run
