Giants vs. Cubs MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Rodon and San Francisco Will Roll Over Chicago (Friday, September 9)
Kelsey Grant/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodon
Giants vs. Cubs Odds
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Giants will head in to Wrigley Field with the hopes of snapping a four-game losing skid, which has surely put to bed any dwindling hopes of a Wild Card berth.
Carlos Rodon will get the ball for the Giants Friday, looking to record his 13th win of the season and second over the Cubbies.
Veteran Drew Smyly has put together a quality season himself at the age of 33 and will look to shake off a nightmare outing last time out versus the Cardinals against a softer Giants lineup.
Will Rodon’s recent dominance continue at Wrigley on Friday?
Rodon Looks to Keep Rolling for the Giants
Rodon’s starts have been a high point of excitement in the midst of a tough finish to the season for Giants fans. A quality outing from Rodon will be crucial with his squad playing its ninth game in eight days on Friday.
Rodon has been brilliant over his last seven outings, pitching to an ERA of just 2.18 over 41.33 innings, with a stellar WHIP of just 0.89 during that span. He has also continued to rack up the Ks, averaging 7.5 per game during this seven-game run of dominance.
Since the start of last season, Rodon has struck out 33% of batters faced, which is the second-best mark in the league among pitchers with over 145 innings pitched. When you pair that with a very reasonable Walk Rate, it’s no surprise to see how much success he’s had.
I’m not a big believer in day/night game splits as a meaningful indicator, but for those who are, it is worth noting that Rodon has been spectacular in those contests this year, allowing an ERA of just 1.64 in 49.1 innings of day baseball.
San Francisco has been far more effective against left-handed pitching yet again in 2022 and remains a top-10 team against lefties with a wRC+ of 110 and a .328 wOBA.
Can Smyly and the Cubs Bounce Back?
Conversely, the Cubs have been well below average this season in matchups against left-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 95 and a wOBA of .305 both below their marks versus righties.
Smyly will look to shake off a rough outing in San Francisco on July 30th, which saw the Giants tag him for five earned runs in just four innings, including two homers. He has struggled in a small sample size against the Giants’ current roster, with an expected slug-rate of .439 in 42 plate appearances.
Smyly bounced back with an utterly amazing month of August, allowing an ERA of just 0.90 over 30 innings before a disastrous outing last time out versus the Cardinals.
However, Smyly did run with some favorable luck on BABIP during that span, as well as a well above average Strand Rate.
San Francisco holds a notable starting pitching edge entering this matchup and will be batting in its preferred split on top of that.
Consequently, I like a play on the Giants to win the first five innings at -120 and would play that down to -125.
Rodon has not recorded over 18.5 outs since July 31 against the Cubs, but after the Giants’ double-header yesterday, they would love their ace to go deep into the game.
So at +150, there’s value to swing for the fences here, considering that with the kind of form Rodon has offered of late, it could be somewhat of an anomaly he hasn’t pitched deeper into ball games. This is a great spot for him as he gets an above average matchup against the Cubs.
Pick: San Francisco Giants F5 -0.5 -120 | Carlos Rodon Over 19.5 Outs +150
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