Marlins vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Miami Doesn’t Have the Bullpen to Compete (Friday, June 17)
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor.
- The Mets are home favorites against the Marlins on Friday night.
- The Marlins have been trending up lately, but do they have the arms to compete with the Mets?
- Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Mets keep finding ways to win, which is clear from their most recent series against Milwaukee. On Thursday, they fought back from a three-run deficit after losing starter Tylor Megill to injury.
Miami is dealing with pitching staff injuries, as well. The Marlins have not yet announced a starter as of 1 p.m. ET, as Pablo López’s absence has left a hole in the rotation. However, it hasn’t hurt them of late. Miami has still won six of its last 10 games.
Fortunately, pitching depth has not been an issue for the Mets, and it won’t become one in this matchup. Carlos Carrasco is set to start, coming off a rough outing against the Angels, but he’s in a great spot to bounce back at home.
Carrasco Thrives With Home Cooking
Miami’s recent hot stretch was sparked after a team meeting was called. Since then, the Marlins have played with some pep in their step, although they’ve started to cool down offensively. Jazz Chisholm Jr. was on fire for a bit, but he’s down to hitting just .231 in his last seven games.
Now, the Marlins will have to deal with Carrasco, who looks like he’s regaining some of his form from his Cleveland days. He’ll enter this outing with a 7-2 record and 3.93 ERA.
What has made Carrasco so successful is his command. He ranks in the top 15% of qualified pitchers in walk and chase rate. In addition, his changeup and slider command has given him the ability to put hitters away, with his strikeout increasing 2% from last season.
While Carrasco may have had a rough outing against the Angels, this Miami lineup is not nearly as potent. Only Chisholm, Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler have average exit velocities and hard-hit rates above league average. What’s great for Carrasco is those three have quite a bit of swing and miss in their game. Each of them holds a strikeout rate of over 23%.
The last element to this start for Carrasco is that it takes place at Citi Field. Carrasco’s home-road splits have been drastic this season. In six starts at home, Carrasco is 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA. In six road starts, he is 3-2 with a 5.18 ERA.
Mets Lineup Makes Life Difficult for Opposing Starters
Miami is yet to announce a starter for this game, so this is likely to be a bullpen game with other staples of its rotation set to pitch later in the series.
That is music to the Mets’ ears as the Marlins will enter this series with the eighth highest bullpen ERA in the majors. Miami’s bullpen also has the second-highest BABIP. While that is usually an indication of bad luck, in the Marlins’ case, it is an indication of consistent hard contact.
Hard contact is not something the Mets specialize in, with only two guys with above-average hard-hit rates, but we have seen this lineup make life difficult for pitchers. The Mets will open the game by making the starter work, driving up their pitch count with constant traffic on the bases. This has allowed the Mets to manufacture runs by simply putting the ball in play and making productive outs.
That formula could run the Marlins bullpen dry. The Mets could blow this one open later in the game if the Miami ‘pen is taxed.
Miami is in a bad spot entering this series. The Marlins simply don’t have the number of quality arms to ensure themselves for the rest of the series. So they may need to make the call in the middle of this one to not burn through the pen and live to fight another day.
Nonetheless, Carrasco should hold the Marlins lineup quiet as he gets consistent run support in this one. Back the Mets in this series opener.
Pick: Mets -200