Marlins vs Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: The Total Bet to Make for Thursday’s NL East Clash (Thursday, September 8)

Marlins vs Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: The Total Bet to Make for Thursday’s NL East Clash (Thursday, September 8) article feature image

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

Marlins Odds+112
Phillies Odds-132
Over/Under7 (-115/ -105)
Time6:45 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will complete their three game series on Thursday evening. The Philles have taken the first two games of this series. The Marlins have lost nine in a row and 11 out of 12 overall.

The Phillies have rebounded from a rocky road trip with consecutive wins over the Marlins. The team will look to complete the series sweep on its homefield. That may prove to be difficult with Sandy Alcantara on the mound for the Marlins. However, the best bet on this game may be on the total.

Miami Marlins

For most of the regular season, Sandy Alcantara has been the best starting pitcher in the National League. However, over his last seven starts he has a 4.08 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, compared to 2.36 ERA and 0.99 WHIP for the season. Perhaps you could attribute that to arm fatigue as he is on track to surpass his career high in innings. However, he has alternated between strong and rough starts during that span.

In four of those starts, he allowed four runs and six runs two times each.  In the other three, he allowed one run in 25 innings. After allowing six runs to the Braves on Saturday, Alcantara may be in line for another dominant outing against the Phillies. He has a 3.03 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 29.2 innings against the Phillies this season.

Of course, the issue when it comes to the Marlins is whether there will be enough run support for Alcantara. The Marlins have scored three runs or fewer in each of its last 10 games, with last night's three runs being the high-water mark in that span. Since the all-star break, the team is scoring 2.3 runs per game and is 12-32 in that span.

However, a few of its hitters have had success against Kyle Gibson. Joey Wendle is 9-for-23 in his career against Gibson while Miguel Rojas is 4-for-11 with a home run against him.

Philadelphia Phillies

It has been 10 years since the Phillies last made the postseason. However, that drought may soon be coming to an end as the team sits in a tie for the second wildcard spot and four games up on the Milwaukee Brewers. Tonight, Philadelphia will give Kyle Gibson the ball as it looks to maintain its playoff position.

Gibson has been up-and-down at times this season and has a 4.48 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 140.2 innings. He is coming off a rough outing as he only lasted 1.2 innings and allowed seven runs against the Giants. However, Gibson has had success against the Marlins this season. In four starts, Gibson has a 2.92 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. He has allowed just three earned runs in his last three starts against Miami.

Gibson will be tasked with outdueling Alcantara, but his team has had success against the Marlins ace. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Jean Segura are all hitting .333 or better against Alcantara (min. 20 ABs). Harper and Realmuto each have homers against him as well.

However, the bats have gone a tad bit cold for the Phillies. The team has scored just 15 runs in five September games and slow starts have been the culprit.

Marlins-Phillies Pick

Any game that Sandy Alcantara starts has the potential to be a pitchers duel between his own dominance and the lack of run support he gets. I expect that tonight's game will be low-scoring as well. However, I am doing a different route to target the total.

The first half total is set at 3.5, but FanDuel offers a total for the first three innings as well, and that is set at 2.5 runs. With the first half total you only have one more run to spare, but over two more innings. I prefer the three innings line for a few reasons.

The first three innings covers the first time through the lineup and the first look at how each pitcher is throwing for the night before the batters can make adjustments. Gibson only goes about six innings and of the first six innings, his lowest ERA comes in the first (3.81) and second (2.45) innings. He has not allowed a run in the first inning in 21-of-25 starts and 20-of-25 starts in the second inning. He has a 6.26 ERA in the fourth inning and 4.82 ERA in the fifth.

Meanwhile, Alcantara has a 1.67 ERA in the first inning and 2.00 in both the second and third innings. He has not allowed a run in the first inning in 21-of-24 starts and 22-of-24 in the second inning. The Philles have scored just four runs in the first three innings in the last five games while the Marlins do not score much at all. I expect this game to stay under three runs in the first innings.

Pick: First Three Innings Under 2.5 Runs

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