MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Braves: The Matt Olson Player Prop to Bet (Aug. 16)
Eric Espada/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Olson
- The Braves are solid home favorites in tonight's matchup against the Mets.
- Charlie Morton takes the mound for Atlanta, and he will be opposed by New York's Taijuan Walker.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Mets vs. Braves Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||7:20 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Charlie Morton will draw the start for the Braves looking to better his 4.26 ERA, while Taijuan Walker will take the mound for the Mets.
Atlanta hammered Walker for eight earned on August 5th, but could we see Walker bounce-back on the road Tuesday?
Can Walker Turn It Around For Mets?
Including a dreadful appearance which saw Walker allow eight runs in just a single inning against the Braves on August 5th, Walker has now allowed an ERA of 7.71 since the All-Star break after allowing a mark of just 2.55 prior.
Walker followed a nearly identical trend last season, and although that number is tanked by that last outing versus these very Braves, it does seem possible Walker has regressed.
Walker’s xwOBA has skyrocketed over the last 100 PAs, and on the season he now holds an xERA of 4.19 with opponents batting .364 against in August.
Walker has allowed an average exit velo of 90.4 mph on the road since the start of last season, which is the ninth-highest mark league wide among starters who have pitched over 135 innings, and is certainly concerning for a guy who has only struck out 18.7% of batters this season.
Walker has struggled historically in matchups against the Braves’ current roster, with a xwOBA of 379 and an xSLG of 538 in 62 PAs.
Can Braves Continue to Mash?
Atlanta’s seven-game winning streak has come with some strong play at the plate, as the Braves have generated 6.85 runs per game during that span.
Matt Olson has fared well historically versus Walker with two extra base hits in six at-bats, including an RBI double August 5th.
Looking towards Walker and Olson’s splits from the 2022 season, that is far from surprising.
Olson has slugged .530 versus right-handed pitching altogether this season, while Walker has allowed a .416 slug-rate to left-handed batters and 3.1 home runs per 9 innings.
Walker’s recent struggles could quite likely continue today in a spot against an elite Braves offense in the midst of a tremendous run of play, and I believe Olson could be a likely candidate to do some damage.
At -110 for Olson to manage over 1.5 bases I believe we have the right price to make a play, and I would play this down to -120.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases -110 (Play to -120)