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Mets vs. Brewers Tuesday MLB Picks: Betting Preview for This NL Clash (September 20)

Mets vs. Brewers Tuesday MLB Picks: Betting Preview for This NL Clash (September 20) article feature image
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Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Willy Adames

  • The Mets are slight road favorites in tonight's game against the Brewers.
  • Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for New York, while Milwaukee will counter with Aaron Ashby.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Updated Mets vs. Brewers Odds

Mets Odds -120
Brewers Odds +100
Over/Under 7.5
Time 7:40 p.m. ET
TV TBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Game two of a three-game set between the Brewers and Mets is set for Tuesday night at American Family Field, with significant playoff implications for each side.

New York‘s 7-2 triumph in Game One of the series kept its lead at one game atop the NL East, and extended the Mets’ win streak to five.

Carlos Carrasco will go for New York Tuesday, looking to build on a strong 15-6 record and 3.70 ERA in 141 innings this season.

Milwaukee enters 2.5 games back of Philadelphia for the final wild-card berth in the NL and will look to snap its two-game losing streak with Aaron Ashby on the mound.

This matchup is obviously interesting from a fan’s perspective, but could offer some strong angles handicapping wise as well. Let’s take a look at some notable trends entering this one.

Brewers Hoping For Offense

Offensively, the Brewers have been in steady form over the last 30 days, with a wRC+ of 103 and a wOBA of .317, while the starting pitching has been surprisingly poor with an ERA of 4.63.

This has been an unexpected causation of what could be a very disappointing playoff miss for Milwaukee.

Willy Adames’ excellent recent play has been a significant part of the Brewers’ solid offensive results of late, as throughout September Adames has slugged .549 with 11 extra-base hits in 71 at-bats.

Adames has slugged very effectively versus right-handed pitching this season at .482, and will match up with Carrasco, who has allowed a .496 slug-rate on the road to right-handed batters.

Adames has historically dominated Carrasco with five hits in seven at-bats including a homer, and it seems quite possible those strong numbers continue tonight looking towards each players season long splits.

Carrasco Sizzling For Mets

Carrasco has put together a stellar push of late, entering today’s contest with a 2.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 42 innings since the All-Star break.

Carrasco’s expected rates during this eight-game tear have remained similar to his season-long marks, and a portion of the sizzling numbers appears to be batted balls simply not getting down at meaningful times.

Although Carrasco has pitched to a strong xFIP of 3.09 throughout those eight contests, his QOPA has actually dropped to 4.25 since the All-Star break as well, and I expect results closer to his season long marks, which are still very steady, to come soon.

Since the start of last season, right-handed hitters hold a line-drive rate of 29% against Carrasco, which is the second-highest mark in the league next to Lucas Giolito among pitchers who have thrown over 150 innings.

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Mets-Brewers Pick

The betting lines for sides and totals look sharp entering this contest, and ultimately my favorite play looking at this one ins a prop.

DraftKings has opened Adames at +120 to record over 1.5 bases in this contest, and I believe we have value playing the over down to +115.

Pick: Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 (Play to +115)

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