Mets vs. Giants Odds & Picks: Can Logan Webb Help San Francisco Snap Skid vs. New York?
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb
- The Giants are slight favorites at home against the Mets tonight.
- Logan Webb takes the mound for San Francisco and will be opposed by New York's Chris Bassitt.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Mets vs. Giants Odds
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The San Francisco Giants’ struggles continued in Game 1 of this three-game series against the New York Mets. Alex Cobb’s dreadful luck continued on Monday in the 13-3 drubbing amidst the Giants’ fifth consecutive loss.
New York will send Chris Bassitt to the mound Tuesday. Bassitt has been very strong in the early going with a 4-2 record and a 2.77 ERA in 48 2/3 innings.
San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb, who has followed up his excellent 2021 campaign with a 3.54 ERA in 48 1/3 IP.
Are the Mets worthy of a bet as underdogs?
Can Mets Keep Up This Offense?
Webb will be tasked with shutting down a Mets lineup that has been very potent against right-handed pitching so far this season. New York has hit to the second-best wRC+ rating of 120 vs right-handed pitching, and a .333 wOBA in 1,217 PAs.
Each of Luis Guillorme, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha hold a wRC+ mark beyond 130, and the Mets will offer a lot of tough outs to one of the league’s better pitchers in Webb.
New York does appear due for some regression with regards to it’s success at the plate, however. The Mets hold a 14th-best xwOBA of .426, and the league’s second-highest BABIP of .306. coming from a 23rd-ranked hard-hit rate of 36.7%.
So while New York sits tied for the second-most runs produced in the league so far entering Tuesday’s action and is clearly fielding a vastly improved lineup, it seems likely that once those marks level-off we are looking at a strong but not spectacular batting order.
Which is still great news for Mets fans, as obviously at full strength this is a scary starting rotation, and Bassitt has been a big part of that so far in 2022.
Bassitt has given New York a lot of steady work, and his 48 2/3 innings so far this season is the 21st most of any pitcher league-wide, pitching to a strong xERA of 3.29.
Bassitt throws an array of six pitches, led by his cutter and sinker which hold QOPAs of 5.22 and 4.94, respectively. Altogether he has pitched to a QOPA of just 4.32, but the plethora of options certainly make game-planning tough on opposition batters.
San Francisco did manage to get to Bassitt on April 20th for five earned runs from eight hits, and offer a tougher-than-average test to be sure for Bassitt, who has been analytically trending in the wrong direction over his last 100 PAs.
Can Webb Prop Up Giants?
San Francisco has offensively performed at a very effective rate to begin the 2022 campaign, and has managed 4.90 runs per game with some very positive underlying numbers.
The Giants hold the league’s eighth-best xwOBA of .338, with an xSLG of .443. San Francisco has shown strong plate discipline across the board, and appears to have a scrappy offensive unit once again this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Giants have fared very well, with a 110 wRC+ rating and a .321 wOBA.
The concern has surprisingly been less-than-dominant pitching, and over the last eight games in particular the Giants’ team ERA is 7.86.
I do not expect to see that trend continue Tuesday, as Webb has looked great in the early going and seems likely to trend towards similar results to his stellar 2021 season.
Webb has pitched to a QOPA of 4.51 so far compared to his 4.27 mark in 2021, and his xERA is down to 3.18 from his previous mark of 3.20. Webb has fared very well as a home favorite in non-divisional games, running up a 11-1 mark straight up.
At first glance, this may look like a good time to ride the red-hot Mets to manage another win. New York has hit right-handed pitching more effectively than the Giants so far this season, and Bassitt’s surface-level numbers are better than Webb’s.
However, the Giants expected batting rates suggest they should be right there with the Mets, and Webb projects to offer an edge in starting pitching over Bassitt.
I believe we are going to see Webb pitch a really strong game tonight, and give the Giants an excellent chance to snap their five-game skid. At -125, I believe we have some value backing the Giants, and I also like a small play on Webb to record the win at +180.
Pick: San Francisco Giants -125 (Play to -130) Logan Webb To Record a Win +180
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