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MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Marlins: Expect Lots of Offense in Miami on Sunday

MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Marlins: Expect Lots of Offense in Miami on Sunday article feature image
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Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso.

  • The under has been a reliable play between the Mets and Marlins this season, but our analyst is going a different direction today.
  • Why is Tony Sartori taking the over with David Peterson on the mound for New York?
  • Keep reading to see his breakdown and analysis.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Mets Odds -145
Marlins Odds +120
Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110)
Time 12:05 p.m. ET
TV Peacock
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final matchup of this three-game NL East intradivisional series as the Miami Marlins are set to host the New York Mets. This is the seventh meeting between these two teams this season and there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in five of the first six matchups.

Will we get another low-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the bats awaken this time around?

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New York Mets: Offense Should Score Plenty

While the trends between these two teams point to the under, I am going contrarian in this pick and fading both of these pitching staffs. Left-hander David Peterson is slated to take the mound for the Mets.

Through 10 appearances this season, Peterson is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP with his underlying metrics being just as strong. In his lone appearance against the Marlins, Peterson threw five shutout innings.

So why am I taking the over with this guy taking the mound? Because he does not go deep into games and the Mets’ relief pitching is mediocre.

Through his past five starts, Peterson is averaging just 12.2 recorded outs per game (or 4.1 innings pitched). If this trend continues, New York’s bullpen may carry much of the burden in this contest.

Additionally, this pitching staff may get good run support as the Mets are slated to go against left-hander Daniel Castano. Through 29 career plate appearances against Castano, this current Mets roster boasts a .317 xBA, .520 xSLG and a .392 xwOBA.

Miami Marlins: Offense Starting to Heat Up

As I mentioned above, left-hander Daniel Castano is slated to take the mound for the Marlins. Through five appearances this season, Castano is 0-1 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP.

While those surface-level numbers are solid, his metrics suggest major regression is looming. This season, Castano possesses a .358 xwOBA, .296 xBA, and a .463 xSLG.

Following Castano is a fade-worthy bullpen. Since May 1st, the Marlins’ relief pitching ranks just 24th in the league in ERA, 29th in BA, 26th in SLG and 29th in wOBA.

However, we will still need some runs from Miami to get over this total. That being said, the Marlins’ offense has started to hit better recently as they are averaging five runs per game over their past five outings.

Mets-Marlins Pick

The over has not been a good bet in this matchup so far this season. However, I believe we will finally get a high-scoring game this time around. I am not sold on Peterson’s success thus far this season and Castano is due for some big regression.

The Mets have been hitting well all year while the Marlins have started to swing the bats better recently. Add two mediocre bullpens to the mix and I think this game can get to nine runs.

Pick: Mets/Marlins o8.5 (-110) | Play up to (-125)


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