Mets vs. Yankees MLB Odds & Pick: Bet Bronx Bombers to Win Big After Postponement (Saturday, July 3)

The Subway Series is back, and the New York-based team in first place isn't the one fans will be used to seeing there.

The Mets are fortunate to be in the division they’re in. They’ve been very unconvincing this season due to a rash of injuries, particularly to the lineup. Now healthy, they’re still not hitting and look vulnerable, although the rest of the division isn’t particularly threatening either.

Meanwhile, across the East River in the Bronx, the Yankees have struggled mightily out of the gates this season. This isn’t the year to do it in the American League East either. They entered Thursday in fourth place behind Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto. There's reason for optimism at the plate, but Friday's starter being the Yanks' No. 2 is a big issue.

Let's break down where bettors can find value in this matchup.

Mets Lineup Has Hit Cold Patch

Taijuan Walker has been a godsend for the Mets this season.

With the injuries to the Mets’ lineup and lack of progress in Noah Syndergaard’s rehab, he has been crucial. Signed as a runner-up prize when New York missed out on Trevor Bauer, Walker has made 14 starts this season with a 2.38 ERA.

His peripheral numbers don’t indicate he’s been quite that good (3.62 xERA, 3.72 xFIP), but Walker’s strikeouts per nine innings are the most of his career, and he’s allowing fewer homers per nine innings than any full season he’s pitched.

At the plate, the Mets are finally getting healthy. The top of the lineup looks like it should have at the start of the season, with Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor setting up Michael Conforto and Pete Alonso.

But Queens’ club has still been struggling mightily. Entering Thursday night’s game, the Mets ranked dead last in MLB over the previous 15 days with a .586 OPS. That’s .224 lower than the Yankees in that span.

Yankees Have Reliable Starter In Montgomery

The Yankees’ lineup has underwhelmed for most of the season, but it has shown signs of life of late. Over the past two weeks, New York entered play on Thursday tied for fourth in MLB with an .812 OPS.

During that two-week span, the Yankees have a bevy of thriving bats in their lineup. Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and even DJ LeMahieu all have an OPS over .900. Sanchez leads the way at 1.058 with four home runs and 10 RBIs, while LeMahieu has 14 RBIs in his last 13 games.

The problem: That hasn’t translated to wins. The Yanks are 4-6 in their last 10 games and just dropped two out of three at home to the Angels, the second of which was due to an incredible Aroldis Chapman implosion.

It should be noted that during the Yankees’ recent skid, they scored three or fewer runs in four games before notching 19 in their last two, only to split them with the Halos. All five of the Yankees’ losses since the start of the Red Sox series have been by multiple runs.

While Walker has been an unlikely ace for the Mets, Jordan Montgomery has been surprisingly reliable for the Yankees this season.

Montgomery looked set to be a mainstay in the Yanks’ rotation back in 2017, when he posted a 3.88 ERA over 29 starts. Over the next three years, though, he started just 17 games, 10 of which came in the shortened 2020 season. Last year, he posted a 5.11 ERA, although a 3.65 xFIP indicated potentially better results moving forward.

He hasn’t been dominant, but Montgomery has a 4.06 ERA and 4.01 xFIP this season through 15 starts. That’s good for a middle-of-the-rotation starter for a team like the Yankees, but poor performance from Domingo German and Jameson Taillon combined with Corey Kluber’s injury make him the Yanks’ No. 2.

Montgomery does have a strong matchup against the Mets’ lineup, which features plenty of bats who thrive from the left side of the plate. Entering play on Thursday, the Mets ranked 26th in MLB over the past month with a .675 OPS against southpaws.

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Mets-Yankees Pick

This really is a lopsided matchup at the moment. The Mets may be atop the National League East, but they have more holes than most division leaders in MLB and simply cannot hit, especially against left-handed pitchers.

Given the strong matchup Montgomery has against a struggling Mets lineup, as well as how well the Yankees are hitting of late, I feel comfortable playing the Run Line and getting a big plus number.

Pick: Yankees Run Line +145 | Play down to +130