MLB Odds & Picks For Marlins vs. Phillies: Why You Should Fade Aaron Nola

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via Parx, which offers new customers a 20% profit boost + $500 risk-free wager on their first bet AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app.Learn more about BetSync here.

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies begin their season by welcoming the Miami Marlins to Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have some new faces in the door after the departures of third baseman Maikel Franco and outfielder Corey Dickerson as free agents.

The club added shortstop Didi Gregorius and starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, but its biggest move may have occurred off the field with the hiring of Joe Girardi as manager. Gregorius and Girardi will hope to replicate the success they had during their time together with the New York Yankees.

Marlins Preview

It shouldn't take much for the Marlins to improve upon a 2019  team that produced the fewest wins in the National League. Corey Dickerson left Philadelphia for Miami and he could get his new team off to a fast start if he can provide any clues to beating his former club. Dickerson was signed as a free agent to a two-year deal and he’ll be accompanied by a group of veterans in Matt Joyce, Francisco Cervelli and Jonathan Villar.

These vets will look to fill the void after Martin Prado and Curtis Granderson announced their retirement.

Matchup Analysis

Aaron Nola gets the nod as opening day starter for the Phillies and he’ll be opposed by Sandy Alcantara. Betting odds opened with the Phillies as -215 favorites and that number has been bet down a bit to -210. The Marlins seem to have some support in the market despite only registering 57 wins on the season last year. Ironically, three of those wins came against Aaron Nola, who went winless against the Marlins during his 2019 campaign. In fact, for Nola's career, the Phillies are 5-8 straight up against the Marlins with him as their starting pitcher. Those games have cost Phillies backers almost seven units at the betting window.

If that’s not enough, the Phillies are also winless in Nola’s last seven starts dating back to August 25, when he was on the wrong side of the decision against, you guessed it, the Miami Marlins.

The Marlins' strength undoubtedly lies in their pitching staff. Sandy Alcantara is certainly an arm they can rely on. Alcantara made 32 starts last year in his first full season and went 6-14 with a 3.88 ERA / 1.32 WHIP. What’s even more impressive is that two of his six wins came against the Phillies. In his four career starts against the Phillies, the Marlins are 3-1 and have provided a return of four units for their backers.

The current Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Standings have the Phillies finishing fourth in the NL East, just one game ahead of the Marlins. I’m inclined to agree with this projection because I’m not so sure Philadelphia’s acquisitions are an upgrade from last year’s team. The loss of Franco removes a big presence in the Phillies lineup and Jean Segura just isn’t the type of player you game plan around so he doesn’t beat you.

On the other hand, Miami’s roster moves should only bolster a team that was dead last in total bases (2065), home runs (146) and on-base plus slugging (.673).

What I'm Betting

At the current betting odds, I can only look to back the dog in this matchup. Despite a short sample size, Alcantara projects well against the Phillies while Nola hasn’t had much success against the pesky Marlins. I would play the Marlins all the way down to +160 before considering taking a look at the Phillies.

In regards to the total, I have a slight lean to the under. The total in Nola’s last six starts vs. Miami resulted in an under. As for Alcantara, the total in his four career starts against the Phillies has gone 3-1 to the under. I think this will be a competitive matchup with both teams looking to get going right out of the gates.

The picks: Marlins +175 (value down to +160), Under 8.5 (-115)

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