The New York Yankees host the Minnesota Twins on August 11, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
This might be a battle between the two fan bases having the most depressing month in all of baseball. Since the start of July, the Yankees have gone 14-20. Only one team in the American League has more losses over that stretch.
For the Twins, they saw their team wave the white flag at the trade deadline and ship of 10 players from the MLB roster. Minnesota knows it’s not making the playoffs, and New York sees its playoff chances slipping away. So, does the advantage go to the desperate team or the one with nothing to lose?
Find my MLB betting preview and Twins vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Twins vs Yankees Prediction
- Twins vs Yankees pick: Yankees -165 (Play to -170)
My Twins vs Yankees best bet is New York to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Yankees Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +140 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -165 |
Twins vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zebby Matthews (MIN) | Stat | RHP Will Warren (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 6-5 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 5.17 / 3.85 | ERA /xERA | 4.44 / 4.09 |
| 2.74 / 3.11 | FIP / xFIP | 3.61 / 3.65 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.42 |
| 22.9% | K-BB% | 15.5% |
| 33.6% | GB% | 43.8% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Mike Ianniello’s Twins vs Yankees Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
25-year-old Zebby Matthews climbed his way up the Twins’ prospect rankings to the No. 4 overall spot before earning the call-up in May. He got his feet a little wet at the end of last season, but was going to get his chance in the rotation before an injury to his right shoulder kept him out for more than a month.
Since returning in July, the results for Matthews have been mixed and very boom or bust. He has made four starts since returning from the injured list. Two have them have been great, allowing a total of one run across 11 innings with 13 strikeouts in those positive outings. The other two have been disasters, allowing five runs apiece for 10 runs in eight innings. Which version of Matthews we get will entirely dictate this game.
It is hard to take a positive view of this Minnesota lineup right now. On the whole season, the Twins are 22nd in scoring and 14th in wOBA. They have been floating right around league average, but that was before they traded away Carlos Correa, Harrison Bader, Ty France, and Willi Castro.
To make matters worse, Byron Buxton is currently on the injured list. He is Minnesota’s best player by a mile. Matt Wallner is also on the paternity list just as he was heating up. Kody Clemens has the highest OPS in this current lineup at .784.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
It has been a mixed bag for Will Warren’s rookie season, but the Yankees are showing they have trust in him. Warren has a 4.44 ERA through 24 starts and has shown promising improvement throughout the year. He has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts.
Warren has terrific stuff, utilizing a fastball that has held hitters to a .196 average and a sweeper that gets more horizontal break than any sweeper in the league. He pairs those two pitches with a sinker that drops and tails back to his arm side to confuse hitters.
Despite the recent cold spell, the Yankees are still third in the league in scoring. They rank second in wRC+ and have the second-highest OPS. They generate more walks and hit more home runs than any team in baseball.
Aaron Judge has gotten off to a slow start in his return from the injured list, but he is still the best hitter on the planet and won’t stay quiet for long. Giancarlo Stanton has been terrific at the plate since the All-Star break and Anthony Volpe has offset his defensive struggles with an offensive power surge.
Twins vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
It is really hard to back a Twins team that outwardly gave up on the season. Without Buxton, there isn’t a single player in this lineup with an OPS over .800. Maybe Wallner returns on Monday, but that is still a lot to ask for one guy. Despite their recent struggles and inconsistency, this is still a Yankees lineup capable of putting up double-digit runs in the blink of an eye.
Matthews has been boom-or-bust all season and if teams can jump on him, it has snowballed quickly. Warren has had the occasional blowout outing too, but he has been much more stable and consistent lately, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts. Warren has nasty stuff and can keep hitters off balance in a variety of ways. His command has been an issue, but if he doesn’t beat himself, he has the stuff to get out of anybody.
Despite the disaster that has been Devin Williams and the Yankees bullpen, this is still a significantly better group than the Twins back end. Minnesota traded their entire bullpen away at the deadline. As bad as the last two weeks have been for New York, they rank ninth in bullpen xFIP and Minnesota ranks 28th.
The price is a little steep, but it is the best value on the board in this game.
Pick: Yankees -165 (Play to -170)
Moneyline
Lay the price with the Yankees on Monday night.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass
Over/Under
Pass
