We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
We're currently 5-2 on Triple-A bets logged in the Action Network App, so let's find a few more winners for this week.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Louisville Bats @ Columbus Clippers
Friday, 7:05 PM ET
The Guardians have promoted a pair of their top players from Double-A to Triple-A, and Columbus now has one of the strongest lineups at this level.
Ralphy Velasquez is the big one — he’s one of the highest rated prospects in the Guardians organization and is instantly batting clean up. Angel Genao improves the bottom of the order and the Clippers' middle infield. CJ Kayfus is back from injury, and the Guardians have been relatively healthy at the big league level, which means he and guys like Cooper Ingle, Juan Brito, Nolan Jones, and George Valera are all down at Triple-A. Kody Huff has broken out, while Khalil Watson has been the Clippers’ best player.
This lineup is loaded.
The starting pitching in this series is relatively even, but Columbus has two studs in the bullpen right now in Daniel Espino and Franco Aleman, and I expect to see both of them multiple times this weekend.
I can’t remember a time in the past five years in Triple-A when pitching was collectively as bad as it is right now, so it’s massive that Columbus has two actual high-leverage guys (when most teams have zero).
Columbus has taken two of the first three games of this series so far, and the Clippers had their chances in a 4-2 loss on Thursday. Louisville cashed in one of their only real chances with a three-run home run, while Columbus left the bases loaded multiple times, including in the bottom of the 9th with one out and their two best players up to bat.
We’re probably looking at Columbus in the -110/-120 range all weekend, yet the Clippers should have the better chance to win any of the remaining three games.
Pick: Columbus Clippers ML
Memphis Redbirds @ Iowa Cubs
Friday, 8:08 PM ET
The Iowa Cubs are in rough shape right now, and I will be looking for spots to play against them this weekend.
For starters, the Iowa lineup has gone cold recently, with guys like Kevin Alcantara in a slump and Jonathan Long having a down year. The past few weeks, this has been offset by Pedro Ramirez being an absolute menace and emerging as one of the best hitters in Triple-A, but he’s been out of the lineup now for a couple of days, and it looks like he’s going to miss some time with injury.
Even without Ramirez, this isn’t a terrible lineup per Triple-A standards, but Iowa has the worst pitching staff in the International League.
If Iowa doesn’t hit, the Cubs aren’t going to win games, and it becomes even more unlikely that they’ll be able to grab wins against a team that pitches and hits the way Memphis does.
Similar to their parent club, Memphis has everyone functioning at a high level. The Redbirds enter play 29-19 and are one of the few teams that have legitimate starting pitching and a couple of reliable relievers.
I wasn’t a believer in this Memphis lineup at first, but I’m coming around on the Redbirds. Blaze Jordan has now been a quality hitter at the Triple-A level for a while. Jimmy Crooks is having an incredible season, entering play with a 1.028 OPS. Josh Baez and Leo Bernal have big-time upside.
We also might see Lars Nootbaar in the lineup for Memphis again this weekend, as he joined the Redbirds for a rehab assignment earlier this week.
I feel like Memphis should be heavy favorites all weekend, but that might not be the case since Iowa tends to get a ton of market respect when they play at home.
Quinn Mathews should get a start for Memphis on either Friday or Saturday. He has all the upside in the world, and I’d be willing to back him at the right price, especially if Ramirez is still out for Iowa.
Pick: Memphis RedBirds ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Columbus Clippers ML (vs. Louisville, 7:05 PM ET)
- Memphis RedBirds ML (@ Iowa, 8:08 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
