Clear Eyes. Full Hearts. Can't Lose.
Here are my MLB Player Props today, including home run picks for three players on Friday, August 21.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:15 PM | |
| 7:40 PM | |
| 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Rays vs. Orioles MLB Player Prop
Pete Alonso
Home Run
Although tonight’s slate is highlighted by a group of Cy Young-caliber arms taking the mound for their respective squads, there are still a handful of games where offensive fireworks can be expected. The first place to look is in Baltimore, where the Orioles open a three-game series with the Rays at Camden Yards.
Despite being in the midst of a four-game losing streak, Baltimore sits just two games out of a playoff berth, and its improved play since the All-Star break has largely been due to the exceptional bat of Pete Alonso. The 31-year-old has been posting solid numbers all season, but the last couple of weeks have been truly extraordinary.
Since August 8th, Alonso has gone 22-for-46 at the plate with six home runs, a 1.460 OPS, and a .435 ISO. That remarkable 12-game stretch helped increase his season-long batting average all the way to .269 (which would be the third-highest mark of his career if the season ended today), while his 29 home runs suddenly put him within striking distance of the 38 bombs he launched last season with the Mets – especially if he keeps hitting at this rate.
Alonso’s average exit velocity (94.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (56.3%) both rank in the top five among qualified major league hitters and were already in elite territory before this insane hot streak. It really seems as if lately Alonso is a fantastic candidate to leave the yard on any given night, and this evening’s matchup with Tampa starter Freddy Peralta (1.41 HR/9) is continuing that trend.
Peralta has struggled since being traded to the Rays in July, recording a 7.53 ERA and allowing three home runs so far through his first three starts. Albeit a small sample size, his hard-hit rate of 48.9% in those 14.1 innings is considerably higher than any of the previous marks he posted elsewhere in his career.
Peralta is also largely dependent on his fastball; he throws the heater over 50% of the time to both lefties and righties. It just so happens Alonso is one of the best fastball hitters on the planet, slugging .642 against four-seamers this season with a .717 xSLG and a 66.3% hard-hit rate. Peralta has already surrendered 20 homers this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that number increase tonight in one of Alonso’s at-bats.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run
Mets vs. White Sox MLB Player Prop
Miguel Vargas
Home Run
The upstart White Sox are another unexpected team with playoff aspirations in 2026, and among their plethora of exciting young players, Miguel Vargas stands out as the biggest surprise.
The former Dodgers’ top prospect floundered in his first two major league seasons before emerging with Chicago in 2025 as a solid infield option. However, the 26-year-old has made such significant strides at the plate that just a year later he is now cemented in the middle of a potent White Sox lineup and even slugged his way to an All-Star nod at third base.
From 2025 to 2026, Vargas’s barrel rate spiked from 9.4% to 14.5%, while his hard-hit rate jumped from 40.5% to 46.5%. His average exit velocity has also improved from 89.7 mph to 90.8 mph. These gains have turned Vargas into one of the most feared power hitters in baseball; he sits at 28 homers right now and is just one away from tying the combined number of home runs he tallied over his first three major league seasons.
With the Mets starting left-hander Sean Manaea (1.30 HR/9) tonight, it’s worth diving into what Vargas has done against southpaws this season. His prowess against the other side of the split has been incredible; he’s slugging .557 against lefties with 11 home runs and a .938 OPS. Only five players have hit more homers against left-handers than Vargas in 2026.
Manaea, meanwhile, has given up plenty of loud contact over his last few outings, including a pair of home runs in last week’s tilt against Washington. The 34-year-old veteran has now conceded multiple homers in four of his last eight starts, and a total of 10 round-trippers since the calendar turned to July.
The majority of the damage done against Manaea is at the mercy of right-handed bats, like Vargas. Righties are slugging .484 with 12 home runs against Manaea this season.
Pick: Miguel Vargas Home Run
Reds vs. Diamondbacks MLB Player Prop
Nolan Arenado
Home Run
Despite the drama in the desert over Ketel Marte’s mysterious absence, there are a handful of Arizona hitters posting bounce-back seasons at the plate. One of them is third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has finally hit the 20-home run mark for the first time since 2023 in St. Louis.
Although the 35-year-old’s underlying numbers are nothing to write home about, the results have been there for the veteran, especially since the All-Star break. Over his 116 plate appearances, Arenado leads the Diamondbacks with eight home runs and is sporting a team-high .284 ISO during that span.
Arizona returns home to open a three-game series tonight with Cincinnati at Chase Field, a place where Arenado has thrived in his first season. He owns a .269 batting average and .829 OPS in home games, while belting 11 home runs in 201 at-bats. Arenado’s .219 ISO in home outings lags only behind Diamondbacks’ star outfielder Corbin Carroll’s ridiculous .306 mark.
The right-handed-hitting Arenado has also been tremendous against lefties throughout his entire career, posting a .294 average against southpaws to go along with .549 SLG and 109 career home runs. This season has been more of the same, as the veteran third baseman has gone deep against left-handed six times in 106 at-bats en route to a .481 SLG and .806 OPS.
Arenado and the D’Backs draw a matchup with Reds lefty Nick Lodolo (1.51 HR/9), who has had trouble keeping right-handed bats in the yard. The 28-year-old has allowed 11 home runs to righties in 2026, while over the course of his five seasons with Cincinnati, 65 of the 70 dingers he has dealt have come against right-handed hitters.
Although he was sharp in his last start at home against a feeble Miami lineup, Lodolo served up a trio of homers in just four innings of work on August 11th – his last outing on the road. With Arizona surging towards playoff contention, and Arenado raking as he did during his All-Star days, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Lodolo come away from tonight’s start a little snake-bitten.
