The Seattle Mariners host the Chicago Cubs on August 21, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SEAM.
The Mariners are favored by -108 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cubs are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Mariners Prediction
- Cubs vs Mariners Pick: Cubs ML (-102, FanDuel | Play to -115)
My Cubs vs Mariners best bet is on Chicago to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Mariners Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +100 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -108 |
- Cubs vs Mariners moneyline: Cubs +100, Mariners -108
- Cubs vs Mariners over/under: 7.5 (-122o / -100u)
- Cubs vs Mariners spread: Cubs -1.5 (+160), Mariners +1.5 (-194)
Cubs vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| Matthew Boyd | Stat | Emerson Hancock |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W-L | 7-7 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 4.02 / 4.99 | ERA / xERA | 3.30 / 3.98 |
| 4.64 / 4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 3.72 / 3.83 |
| 11.9 | K-BB% | 16.9 |
| 41.2 | GB% | 41.8 |
| .275 | BABIP | .273 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 108 | Location+ | 106 |
Cubs vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Cubs had been hanging on quite tightly to their wild-card spot in the National League until a week or so ago. Matthew Boyd started last Saturday in a game made famous by Joshua Baez and with three home runs in his major-league debut, and Chicago would go on to lose 8-4. Since then, they've won two and lost two, with the offense experiencing some turbulence against the White Sox.
Boyd will get another chance on Friday following the worst start of his season. He maintained a 1.67 ERA across five starts in July, and prior to the ugly seven-run showing against the Cardinals last weekend, it had been a bit of a mixed bag in August. Still, this is the same pitcher we've seen all year — one who has pitched quite well to his defense and home park.
The lefty has always been a fly-ball-oriented pitcher, and while his rate of contact on the ground is up ever so slightly, it's still holding true all these years later. Boyd has the best outfield defense in baseball by Outs Above Average, thanks in large part to Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, and that's a huge reason his ERA is a respectable 4.02 — and 96 points lower than expected.
Boyd is a strike-thrower, walking just 7.3% of batters this season to stay right in line with his career average, and with few strikeouts we should be able to expect more fly balls on Friday night. It's worth noting that his rolling launch angle is way up after a mid-season swoon, with his fly-ball rate exceeding 28% this month. That's four points higher than average and right around his career mark.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
Emerson Hancock is a lot like Boyd, only from the right side. He strikes out a few more guys, but generally isn't a huge threat in that department with a strikeout rate around 20% in the last three months. He's not going to walk many guys, instead choosing to pitch to contact in the air where his home park goes to work for him.
Hancock's 29.4% fly-ball rate is more than five points higher than average, though it has taken a nosedive since peaking in June. It stands at just 25.5% this month — still a high mark, but not quite where he'd been all season. He's paid the price a bit with his xwOBA hitting .273 this month — up from .259 in July — and while he's allowed just two homers in August, opponents are batting .306 against him.
Like many pitchers on the Mariners, Hancock has been better at home, sporting a 3.13 ERA in 12 starts as opposed to a 3.51 on the road. The split isn't incredibly wide, but hitters have a difference of 57 points in OPS — and Seattle's friendliness to fly-ballers certainly helps out as well. Interestingly enough, he's given up significantly fewer fly balls at home, though his home run-to-fly-ball ratio is significantly higher.
At the plate, the Mariners are having an utterly strange go of it. In the last two weeks, they've improved marginally in wRC+, but they're striking out 25% of the time — one of the highest numbers in the league — with a 10.1% walk rate which ranks top-10. Their meek .138 Isolated Power shouldn't scare a fly-ball pitcher like Boyd, and they're also hitting just .225 in the split.
Cubs vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
The Cubs have waffled a bit at the plate in the last couple of games, but on the whole they still sit eighth offensively over the last two weeks with a 111 wRC+. They're rocking a .193 ISO with solid plate discipline numbers, and that should absolutely scare Hancock.
Chicago ranks third against ground-ball pitchers in OPS and 12th against fly-ballers, which could actually work out given Hancock's steep decline in fly balls at home. Even if he's to allow more contact in the air this time, the gap isn't all that wide to begin with, but Chicago hasn't hit a ton of fly balls in the last two weeks so perhaps that'll stick. Either way, this is a powerhouse offense with plenty of pop and a hefty HR:FB, so Hancock's offerings should be properly punished.
Seattle, meanwhile, ranks fourth-worst in baseball in wRC+ to lefties compared to ninth against righties, and is in the midst of a prolonged power outage. Boyd may have made a mess of his last outing, but he's been a consistent pitcher who's only really been burned by the home run. That hasn't been a big feature of the Mariners' offense, and as a result I don't foresee him getting into any trouble. I'm confident with Chicago here.
Pick: Cubs ML (-102, FanDuel | Play to -115)
