We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
We're currently 4-2 on Triple-A bets logged in the Action Network App, so let's find a few more winners for this week.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Nashville Sounds @ Durham Bulls
Tuesday, 11:05 AM ET
I’m focusing on hitting right now, given the pitching at the Triple-A level right now is really poor.
However, Nashville is the exception to this. The Brewers are always loaded with pitching, as the organization excels at developing young arms. The Sounds will typically have a good staff.
Additionally, the lineup is great on paper, and I think they’re about to peak. Luis Lara is one of the top prospects in baseball. Cooper Pratt is breaking out. Jett Williams is beginning to produce after a slow start. Eddys Leonard showed flashes at Gwinnett last season, but he’s found a new level this season, posting a 1.002 OPS out of the seven-hole in Nashville’s lineup.
This lineup can produce from every spot in the order.
Meanwhile, Durham hasn’t been all that good this season. Tampa’s Minor League squads are typically good because the Rays are good at developing talent, but most of their better Minor League players aren’t at the Triple-A level right now.
The tough part will be getting playable prices in this series, but Durham tends to get a ton of market respect when they play at home. Durham also has a couple of decent starting pitchers, which could keep the odds in check enough for Nashville to be playable.
Hopefully, the oddsmakers are lazy this week and give us playable numbers on a far superior Nashville team.
Pick: Nashville Sounds ML
Reno Aces @ Oklahoma City Comets
Tuesday, 7:35 PM ET
Oklahoma City’s lineup is stacked. It’s easily the best at the Triple-A level. I’ll be looking to back that lineup all week.
I particularly think this matchup will be one-sided because Reno doesn’t have much pitching.
While Oklahoma City’s pitching numbers aren’t great on paper, the Dodgers tend to fill up their Triple-A roster with innings-eater type guys, but they get a nice boost with River Ryan returning to action this week.
Additionally, Reno just lost its top player, with Ryan Waldschmit getting called up. Additionally, Carlos Santana was supposed to be in Reno on a rehab assignment this week, but he just reinjured himself.
Suddenly, Reno’s offense looks watered down.
And in the other dugout stands James Tibbs III, Enrique Hernandez, Alex Freeland, Ryan Ward, Jack Suwinski, and several other solid Triple-A guys.
Pick: Oklahoma City Comets ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Nashville Sounds ML (@ Durham, 11:05 AM ET)
- Oklahoma City Comets ML (vs. Reno, 7:35 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
