We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Rochester Red Wings @ Syracuse Mets
Friday, 6:35 PM ET
The I-90 Rivalry is off to a hot start with three extremely competitive games to start the week.
Rochester won a rain-shortened game on Tuesday, while Syracuse cashed in on a great pitching performance from top prospect Jack Wenninger on Wednesday and won on a walk-off base hit by another top prospect, AJ Ewing, on Thursday.
I think Syracuse was unlucky that the rain rolled in on Tuesday because once Rochester ace Riley Cornelio was out of the game, Syracuse had a solid late-inning edge.
I think Mother Nature is probably the main reason Syracuse is 2-1 so far this week, rather than 3-0.
I think Saturday and Sunday might set up better for Rochester, so I’m going to go with a little zig-zag breakdown.
Because every game has been close and Rochester stole one on Tuesday, it might keep the price playable on Syracuse when Jonah Tong gets the ball on Friday night.
Tong was one of the top pitchers in Minor League Baseball last season, which earned him his MLB debut a year earlier than expected. Tong had mixed results at the big league level, so I think the plan in 2026 was to give him an actual run at Triple-A until the New York Mets have a need for starting pitching.
Tong was also working on developing a legitimate third pitch, which isn’t possible in the majors. It’s part of the reason Tong got off to a shaky start, but Tong has been back to looking like the stud he was last year the past month or so, and I expect another big outing from the 22-year-old on Friday night.
Both of these teams have been below average at the plate this season, so we could see this series continue to play under.
We already know it’s Tong for Syracuse on Friday, and we should see Chandler Champlain start for Rochester on Saturday, while Cornelio is the two-time start guy this week, getting the ball in the finale on Sunday.
If I had to target one spot for a bet in this series, it’s Syracuse on Friday with Jonah Tong on the mound.
Pick: Syracuse Mets ML
Albuquerque Isotopes @ Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Friday, 8:05 PM ET
The Albuquerque lineup is cooking right now, and I don’t think there’s anything Sugar Land is going to be able to do about it.
The problem will be finding good prices to play Albuquerque since they have won six in a row.
Instead, I’m looking to target the Over since Albuquerque doesn’t have a ton of quality pitching.
Totals have been surprisingly low so far in this series. It’s explainable in the respect that Sugar Land has one of the best pitching parks in the PCL, and Sugar Land also has one of the worst offenses at the Triple-A level.
But I still don’t think that justifies a total under 10 runs, which is where it’s been landing this entire series.
By my rankings, Albuquerque has six of the top 50 Triple-A hitters, and even the final three guys have been productive.
You will want to make sure Cole Carrigg, Starlin Thompson, Adael Amador, Charlie Condon, Zac Veen, and Vimael Machin are in the Albuquerque lineup, but what I don’t think has been fully factored in is guys like Blaine Crim, Drew Avans, Braxton Fulford and Chad Stevens, who have all popped into the Top 50 at some point (Crim, Avans and Stevens were on different teams) in the past calendar year.
It’s rare to have that much offensive firepower at Triple-A for an extended period of time, but that’s what Alburquerque is working with. Since the Isotopes have below-average pitching relative to the rest of the league, their games will continue to soar Over the closing totals.
Pick: Over
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Friday
- Syracuse Mets ML (vs. Rochester, 6:35 PM ET)
- Albuquerque vs Sugar Land Over (8:05 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
