We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets: How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
But since we have some in-season data, it’s time to start firing.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
Lehigh Valley IronPigs @ St. Paul Saints
Tuesday, 7:37 PM ET
I thought St. Paul had arguably the best team in the International League coming into the season, but the entire team has gotten off to a cold start, and the Saints now enter play this week at 5-9.
I expect that to change.
St. Paul’s lineup is loaded, with guys like Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins, Gabe Gonzalez, and Emanuel Rodriguez — just about every position player on this roster has the chance to be productive.
The Twins are playing great ball right now, so if anyone thought they might be going up, they likely don’t think that’s the case this week. We should better collective focus from the Saints.
St. Paul just got a massive rotation boost with Kendry Rojas coming back over the weekend, and he will likely make his second start of the season on Saturday, which is a spot I will likely target.
In the other dugout, my thoughts really haven’t changed on Lehigh Valley since I wrote about it on Friday:
“Meanwhile, Lehigh Valley hasn’t been hitting, so I’m more than willing to fade the IronPigs, who I think are very fortunate to be 8-4. They’ve been winning without their best player, Aiden Miller, who went down with a back injury in Spring Training. The Pigs’ roster is mostly placeholders right now, as the Phillies don’t need any of those guys, and their better prospects haven’t reached the Triple-A level yet.”
I would avoid playing against Zack Wheeler as he will make a start for Lehigh Valley this week at some point.
But outside of that, there’s really no other pitcher on the Lehigh Valley roster I wouldn’t fade against St. Paul’s lineup.
I wasn’t impressed with the at-bats Lehigh Valley put together against Rochester last weekend, and I think St. Paul has a stronger staff overall, so I see this road trip being a potential big struggle for the Iron Pigs.
Pick: St. Paul Saints ML
Las Vegas Aviators at Reno Aces
Tuesday, 9:05 PM ET
Vegas has cooled off after a hot start, and the Aviators are short on pitching, so I don’t see them faring well on the road against Reno’s loaded lineup.
I think this is going to be a two-start week for Mitch Bratt (Tuesday and Sunday), which is as good as it’s going to get for Reno from a pitching standpoint.
If the series comes down to who will hit better, it’s likely going to be the team with Ryan Waldschmidt, Tommy Troy, and LuJames Groover at the top of the order.
Las Vegas got rained out twice in Sacramento over the weekend, which means the Aviators haven’t played a game since Friday, when they got shut out 11-0 by the River Cats and lost 9-0 to Sacramento the previous day.
Outscored 20-0, followed by back-to-back rainouts and having to sit around in Sacramento all week, followed by travel to a very good Reno team to face Bratt, who is probably the Aces’ best pitcher, sounds like the right set of circumstances to continue a losing streak.
Pick: Reno Aces ML
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays
- St. Paul Saints ML (vs. Lehigh Valley, 7:37 p.m. ET)
- Reno Aces ML (vs. Las Vegas, 9:05 p.m. ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
