Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, September 8.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Guardians Moneyline +108 (FanDuel, Play to +103)
- Alejandro Kirk to Hit a Home Run +560 (FanDuel, Play to +540)
Guardians vs Orioles Pick
The Orioles finally snapped their six-game losing skid in the series opener, and a series sweep over the Guardians would put them firmly back into playoff conversation. Baltimore may be a little overvalued in the critical second game of the series, however, with Tanner Bibee seemingly more on par with Brandon Young than the surface-level results suggest.
Throughout his last ten starts, Bibee has pitched to an xERA of 3.49 with a FIP of 4.04. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 102 and a Pitching+ of 100 this season, and is seemingly about as effective as his 4.06 ERA suggests.
However, even relative to most starters, Bibee has really struggled working through the order for a third time, which may be a more livable flaw in this spot. Bibee holds ERAs of 3.48 and 3.15 the first two times through the order, compared to a 6.52 ERA the third time through. Though the Guardians didn't get any length from Joey Cantillo on Monday, given the depth of their bullpen and the importance of this game, they shouldn't force Bibee to stretch deeper into the outing than necessary.
Young has been highly effective where it counts of late with an ERA of 3.47 throughout his last ten starts, but his xERA of 4.26 and xFIP of 4.28 suggest some regression likely on the horizon. He also holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12% in that span, but stranding 88.8% of baserunners has masked a fairly average process.
Since July 1st, the Guardians hold a wRC+ of 99 versus right-handed pitching, while the Orioles have struggled to a wRC+ of 90 in that span while holding the fourth-highest strikeout rate in MLB. Cleveland is also four games above .500 on the road while Baltimore is 35-38 at Camden Yards, so statistically home-field advantage doesn't appear to be overly relevant.
Pick: Guardians +108 (FanDuel, Play to +103)
Blue Jays vs Athletics Pick
It took a little time for Alejandro Kirk to get back up to speed after his lengthy absence due to a thumb injury, but over the last month he's been one of the best batters in MLB, while his bat speed has risen significantly relative to where it was when he first came back into the fold.
Across his last 117 PA's, Kirk has hit six home runs while slugging .524, striking out just 9.4% of the time with a hard-hit rate of 43%. He's not known for having consistent home-run pop, but that's a much more manageable concern in a matchup at Sutter Health Park, which ranks second in MLB this season in home-run production.
Jack Perkins has allowed 1.65 HR/9 across 98 and 1/3 innings this season, and 2.09 HR/9 at home this season. He ranks in the 30th percentile in barrel rate and holds a fly-ball rate of 44.9%. The Athletics bullpen has allowed an ERA of 5.43 over the last 30 days while ranking 24th in xFIP and 22nd in Pitching+.
A price of +560 seems generous given the pitching Kirk will face in this matchup at an excellent home-run ballpark.
Pick: Alejandro Kirk to Hit a Home Run +560 (FanDuel, Play to +540)
