MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Phillies vs Braves, Rockies vs Padres, More (Tuesday, September 19)
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Bogaerts
The opportunities to have 15 MLB games in a single day our dwindling, as we're now inside of two weeks remaining in the regular season.
With all 30 teams once again in action tonight, there's plenty of betting opportunities, and our analysts have found value in three games: Mets vs. Marlins, Phillies vs. Braves and Rockies vs. Padres.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, September 19th.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Mets vs. Marlins
By Kevin Rogers
The Mets held off the Marlins on Monday night to end Miami’s three-game winning streak. New York has won six of its last nine games, while improving to 11-5-4 in the first five innings of the past 20 contests.
Joey Lucchesi takes the mound for the Mets tonight, looking for another solid start after tossing seven innings in a 7-1 home victory over Arizona his last time out.
In two spot starts since August, Lucchesi has allowed one run in nearly 13 innings while the Mets won both games as substantial underdogs.
Braxton Garrett is coming off a strong outing at Milwaukee his last time out, yielding four hits in six scoreless innings of a 2-0 victory. However, the Marlins have slumped to a 4-7-3 record in the first five innings of his 14 home starts this season.
The Marlins defeated the Mets at Citi Field in April behind Garrett as Miami scored three first-inning runs. Garrett came within one out of tossing five innings but allowed nine hits and struck out seven.
The Mets have struggled this season against left-handed starting pitching in the first five innings as they led only twice in the 17 road games in this situation. But New York is 4-2-3 in its last 10 games in the first five innings against southpaw starters, which is a nice improvement from their earlier problems.
Let’s back New York in the first five innings at +0.5 and play it at-115 or better.
Pick: Mets F5 RL +0.5 (-115)
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Phillies vs. Braves
By D.J. James
The market is giving a little too much credit to Spencer Strider and the Braves against the Phillies tonight. In one respect, that makes sense. After all, this is the best team in baseball with its Cy Young candidate on the mound.
However, Atlanta has not hit left-handed pitching too well lately, and Cristopher Sánchez is a reliable southpaw starting for the Phillies.
Sánchez has a 3.40 ERA in 87 1/3 innings. He has a 57% ground-ball rate and a 4% walk rate. He went 7 1/3 innings against the Braves last week, allowing four earned runs with 10 strikeouts and one walk.
Strider locked down the Phils in the same game by allowing one earned over seven innings. However, this will be the fourth time he has faced the Phillies, and the turnaround time is quick.
The Phillies have a 110 wRC+, 10% walk rate, and .781 OPS off of righties this month.
The Braves have a 101 wRC+, 6% walk rate, and .763 OPS off of lefties this month.
Philly has a 4.35 xFIP in relief this month, while Atlanta has a 4.25 xFIP in relief this month.
Overall, too much credit is going to Atlanta in this game. Now that they have already clinched, the Phillies have much more motivation to hold on to the top NL wild-card spot.
Play the Fightins at +150 or better.
Pick: Phillies ML (+185)
Rockies vs. Padres
By Alex Hinton
Xander Bogaerts has had an up-and-down season in his first year with the Padres. However, he is ending it on a high note. In September, he is hitting .458 with 17 runs scored, three home runs, six runs batted in and a 1.287 OPS. He hit this line with just hits in four of his last five games.
Bogaerts has not faced tonight's starter, Ryan Feltner, thus far in his career. However, Feltner has a 5.86 ERA overall, 5.40 ERA on the road and is allowing right-handed hitters to hit .254 against him. This will also be his first start since May 13, so he may be on a pitch count.
Bogaerts has fairly even splits as he is hitting .279 against both right- and left-handed pitchers, but he is hitting .294 at home. He also has hit 14 of his 18 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. A home run tonight would cash this line with three hits + runs + runs batted in on one swing.
Bogaerts plays on a talented albeit inconsistent Padres team. Last night, he was in the leadoff spot with Ha-Seong Kim out of the lineup, batting in front of Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. That helped him score three runs. Typically, he bats behind them, which gives him the opportunity to drive them.
Either way, Bogaerts will be set up to clear this line, which he has done in 12 of his 15 past games. In that span, he is averaging 3.3 hits + runs + runs batted in. Tonight, we only need two from him.